I think this is a powerful point, and one that is raised too rarely. To bring it home, we need a decent estimate range of nuclear war risk per year, estimates of alignment risk reduction per year of alignment work, and a calculator spreadsheet to help our feeble monkey brains. Anyone?
The Doomsday Clock is at 23:58:30, but maybe that’s not what you meant? I think they were way off in the Cuban Missile Crisis era, but these days it seems more accurate and maybe more optimistic than I would give it. They do accommodate x-risk of various types.
I think this is a powerful point, and one that is raised too rarely. To bring it home, we need a decent estimate range of nuclear war risk per year, estimates of alignment risk reduction per year of alignment work, and a calculator spreadsheet to help our feeble monkey brains. Anyone?
The Doomsday Clock is at 23:58:30, but maybe that’s not what you meant? I think they were way off in the Cuban Missile Crisis era, but these days it seems more accurate and maybe more optimistic than I would give it. They do accommodate x-risk of various types.
I’d need that in p(doom) per year to do any useful reasoning weighing that against AGI misalignment x-risk