Both these questions have too short timing: half a year. The real question is will H5N1 pandemic happen in the next 5-10 years, that is, before strong AI. If we extrapolate 2.4% per for half a year – to the next 10 years, it will be around 50 %, which is much less comfortable.
Metaculus isn’t very precise near zero, so it doesn’t make sense to multiply it out.
Also, there’s currently a mild outbreak, while most of the time there’s no outbreak (or less of one), so the risk for the next half year is elevated compared to normal.
In the case of H5N1 we could suggest exponential growth of adaptation to mammals and humans as well as the number of infected birds, and ion that case the probability will be higher in the next few years.
The real question is will H5N1 pandemic happen in the next 5-10 years
2.4%
Sorry for a dumb question, but where do those numbers come from? What reasoning stands behind them? Is it some causal story (“jumping to humans is not that easy”), or priors (“pandemics are unlikely”) or some precedent analysis (“it’s not the first time a virus infects so much animal types”)?
Both these questions have too short timing: half a year. The real question is will H5N1 pandemic happen in the next 5-10 years, that is, before strong AI. If we extrapolate 2.4% per for half a year – to the next 10 years, it will be around 50 %, which is much less comfortable.
Metaculus isn’t very precise near zero, so it doesn’t make sense to multiply it out.
Also, there’s currently a mild outbreak, while most of the time there’s no outbreak (or less of one), so the risk for the next half year is elevated compared to normal.
In the case of H5N1 we could suggest exponential growth of adaptation to mammals and humans as well as the number of infected birds, and ion that case the probability will be higher in the next few years.
Sorry for a dumb question, but where do those numbers come from? What reasoning stands behind them? Is it some causal story (“jumping to humans is not that easy”), or priors (“pandemics are unlikely”) or some precedent analysis (“it’s not the first time a virus infects so much animal types”)?
I really lack knowledge about viruses.
I think it is mostly prior probability for large zoonotic event, slightly updated by recent events