That’s what I think every time I hear “history repeats itself”. I wish Scott had considered the idea.
The biggest claim Turchin is making seems to be about the variance of the time intervals between “bad” periods. Random walk would imply that it is high, and “cycles” would imply that it is low.
That’s what I think every time I hear “history repeats itself”. I wish Scott had considered the idea.
The biggest claim Turchin is making seems to be about the variance of the time intervals between “bad” periods. Random walk would imply that it is high, and “cycles” would imply that it is low.