I don’t think now is the window when that’s relevant, because you would have to put the takeoff decade at ~2080. If it’s later, then castration isn’t enough to get you there, and if it’s earlier, castration slightly increases your chances of getting there but doesn’t shift the median outcome much.
If you put the takeoff decade at, say, 2050 (which seems closer to ‘right around the corner’ to me), then the time to have been castrated would have been ~1980-1990.
(I’m assuming we’re talking about castrating 10 year olds; I doubt it’s worth it for anyone older.)
I don’t think now is the window when that’s relevant, because you would have to put the takeoff decade at ~2080. If it’s later, then castration isn’t enough to get you there, and if it’s earlier, castration slightly increases your chances of getting there but doesn’t shift the median outcome much.
If you put the takeoff decade at, say, 2050 (which seems closer to ‘right around the corner’ to me), then the time to have been castrated would have been ~1980-1990.
(I’m assuming we’re talking about castrating 10 year olds; I doubt it’s worth it for anyone older.)
And LessWrong jumps the shark.