I suspect a period of disruptive change caused by AI technologies is not that far off.
To make a prediction here—we will go from having essentially useless AI to human level AI in around a decade or two—just as we have seen with digital cameras, displays, synths etc. The biggest uncertainty in this is which decade it will be. And the machines won’t stop at human level—they will drive straight through and keep going over about a 5 year period. And it’s only after that has happened that progress may start speeding up because of it.
It doesn’t sound as though we disagree too much. I expect progress on billion year timescales, though it won’t be so dramatic after a while. I’m not arguing for low levels of disruption—but I don’t think that systematically exaggerating the expected level of disruption is particularly helpful.
It doesn’t sound as though we disagree too much. I expect progress on billion year timescales, though it won’t be so dramatic after a while. I’m not arguing for low levels of disruption—but I don’t think that systematically exaggerating the expected level of disruption is particularly helpful.