I agree that if technological development productivity was held at a low level indefinitely that could be fatal, but that is a fairly different claim from the one waveman is making—which is that in the nearish term we will be unable to maintain our civilisation.
I am also hopeful that we can reach technological escape velocity with current or even fewer people with reasonable economic wellbeing.
I don’t really think you can make an argument that a renewable economy is viable based on hopium type arguments. As with the Club of Rome work, you would have to assume a massive increase in the rate of progress for this to work. In reality the problem seems to be the reverse—productivity increases seem to have slowed considerably.
I agree that if technological development productivity was held at a low level indefinitely that could be fatal, but that is a fairly different claim from the one waveman is making—which is that in the nearish term we will be unable to maintain our civilisation.
I am also hopeful that we can reach technological escape velocity with current or even fewer people with reasonable economic wellbeing.
I don’t really think you can make an argument that a renewable economy is viable based on hopium type arguments. As with the Club of Rome work, you would have to assume a massive increase in the rate of progress for this to work. In reality the problem seems to be the reverse—productivity increases seem to have slowed considerably.
There is a whole discussion about this both in the popular press and among economists https://time.com/4464743/productivity-decline/ https://www.intereconomics.eu/contents/year/2017/number/1/article/the-global-productivity-slowdown-diagnosis-causes-and-remedies.html
It is one thing even to assume present rates of improvement will continue, it is another to assume a dramatic turnaround against the current trend.
I do not mean technological development productivity, I mean economic productivity (how much stuff we’re making, how many services we’re providing).