That’s a great point. I’m uncertain if the analyses account for the cited issue, where we would expect a priori that extremizing slightly would on average hurt the accuracy, but in any moderately sized sample (like the forecasting tournament,) it is likely to help. It also relates to a point I made about why proper scoring rules are not incentive compatible in tournaments in a tweetstorm here; https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1080460223284948994 .
Interestingly, a similar dynamic may happen in tournaments, and could be part of where info-cascades occur. I can in expectation outscore everyone else slightly and minimize my risk of doing very poorly by putting my predictions a bit to the extreme of the current predictions. It’s almost the equivalent of betting a dollar more than the current high bid in price is right—you don’t need to be close, you just need to beat the other people’s scores to win. But if I report my best strategy answer instead of my true guess, it seems that it could cascade if others are unaware I am doing this.
That’s a great point. I’m uncertain if the analyses account for the cited issue, where we would expect a priori that extremizing slightly would on average hurt the accuracy, but in any moderately sized sample (like the forecasting tournament,) it is likely to help. It also relates to a point I made about why proper scoring rules are not incentive compatible in tournaments in a tweetstorm here; https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1080460223284948994 .
Interestingly, a similar dynamic may happen in tournaments, and could be part of where info-cascades occur. I can in expectation outscore everyone else slightly and minimize my risk of doing very poorly by putting my predictions a bit to the extreme of the current predictions. It’s almost the equivalent of betting a dollar more than the current high bid in price is right—you don’t need to be close, you just need to beat the other people’s scores to win. But if I report my best strategy answer instead of my true guess, it seems that it could cascade if others are unaware I am doing this.