You raise this issue a lot, so now I’m curious how you cash it out in actual numbers:
For the sake of concreteness, call Va the value to you of 10% of your total assets at this moment. (In other words, going from your current net worth to 90% of your net worth involves a loss of Va.)
What’s your estimate of the value of a positive Singularity in terms of Va?
What’s your estimate of the probability (P%) of a positive Singularity at this moment?
What’s your estimate of how much P% would increment by if you invested an additional 10% of your total assets at this moment in the most efficient available mechanism for incrementing P%?
You raise this issue a lot, so now I’m curious how you cash it out in actual numbers:
For the sake of concreteness, call Va the value to you of 10% of your total assets at this moment. (In other words, going from your current net worth to 90% of your net worth involves a loss of Va.)
What’s your estimate of the value of a positive Singularity in terms of Va?
What’s your estimate of the probability (P%) of a positive Singularity at this moment?
What’s your estimate of how much P% would increment by if you invested an additional 10% of your total assets at this moment in the most efficient available mechanism for incrementing P%?