I should have made it more clear at the beginning.
AI governance successfully filters out the nerdy people
They see that they’re still having a hard time finding their way to the policymakers with influence (e.g. what Akash was doing, meeting people in order to meet more people through them).
They conclude that the odds of success are something like ~30% or any other number.
I think that they would be off by something like 10, so it would actually be ~40%, because factoring out the nerds still leaves you with the people at the 90th percentile of Charisma and you need people at the 99th percentile. They might be able to procure those people.
This is because I predict that people at the 99th percentile of Charisma are underrepresented in AI safety, even if you only look at the non-nerds.
I should have made it more clear at the beginning.
AI governance successfully filters out the nerdy people
They see that they’re still having a hard time finding their way to the policymakers with influence (e.g. what Akash was doing, meeting people in order to meet more people through them).
They conclude that the odds of success are something like ~30% or any other number.
I think that they would be off by something like 10, so it would actually be ~40%, because factoring out the nerds still leaves you with the people at the 90th percentile of Charisma and you need people at the 99th percentile. They might be able to procure those people.
This is because I predict that people at the 99th percentile of Charisma are underrepresented in AI safety, even if you only look at the non-nerds.