Robin Hanson wanted to run a “Fire the CEO” conditional prediction market about companies’ stock price if the CEO did / did not resign by the end of the quarter.
Perhaps we should also have a meta-prediction market, where people would guess which perverse incentives will be created by which prediction. (For example, one could bet against a CEO, then give him some non-lethal poison.)
I don’t think this particular idea is much of a concern (people could already profit from assassinating CEOs just by shorting the company’s stock on the ordinary market, yet they do not...), but I would be interested to see some metaculus questions (or just community discussion, as here) about some of the key cruxes I’m wondering about. Like “how much would liquidity increase/decrease if funds were stored in an S&P 500 index instead of just sitting in cash?”, or perhaps “Which country will be first to see more than $100 million of daily of volume (or whatever) on legal prediction platforms?”
Perhaps we should also have a meta-prediction market, where people would guess which perverse incentives will be created by which prediction. (For example, one could bet against a CEO, then give him some non-lethal poison.)
I don’t think this particular idea is much of a concern (people could already profit from assassinating CEOs just by shorting the company’s stock on the ordinary market, yet they do not...), but I would be interested to see some metaculus questions (or just community discussion, as here) about some of the key cruxes I’m wondering about. Like “how much would liquidity increase/decrease if funds were stored in an S&P 500 index instead of just sitting in cash?”, or perhaps “Which country will be first to see more than $100 million of daily of volume (or whatever) on legal prediction platforms?”