I believe you are correct about the importance of taking these phenomena into account: indivisibility of certain serial tasks, coordination overhead of larger team sizes.
I do think that my model takes these into account.
It’s certainly possible that my model is wrong. I feel like there’s a lot of uncertainty in many key variables, and likely I have overlooked things. The phenomena you point out don’t happen to be things that I neglected to consider though.
I understand—my point is more that the difference between these two positions could be readily explained by you being slightly more optimistic in estimated task time when doing the accounting, and the voice of experience saying “take your best estimate of the task time, and double it, and that’s what it actually is”.
I believe you are correct about the importance of taking these phenomena into account: indivisibility of certain serial tasks, coordination overhead of larger team sizes. I do think that my model takes these into account.
It’s certainly possible that my model is wrong. I feel like there’s a lot of uncertainty in many key variables, and likely I have overlooked things. The phenomena you point out don’t happen to be things that I neglected to consider though.
I understand—my point is more that the difference between these two positions could be readily explained by you being slightly more optimistic in estimated task time when doing the accounting, and the voice of experience saying “take your best estimate of the task time, and double it, and that’s what it actually is”.