I think the “pay no price for being wrong” formulation is stronger than the “gain nothing from being right” one because of loss aversion (which makes penalties a stronger incentive), and either is stronger than your second suggestion because of pithiness.
My take on it: I’d noticed that “people who pay no price for being wrong” primed ideas of punishment in my mind, not just loss. “People who gain nothing from being right” primed ideas of commerce or professionalism — an engineer gains by being right, as does a military commander, a bettor, a venture capitalist, or the better sort of journalist.
And the third formulation doesn’t prime anything but “this sounds like Less Wrong”.
The biggest problem with your first alternative is that in it, not having an opinion is equivalent to being wrong.
A lot of the problems with the financial collapse was that various entities and people got to play with the money of other people, with good payouts if they get it right, but no commensurate hit if they got it wrong. While the best outcome is still being right, this kind of situation is bad because it incentivizes taking risk over not taking it. So, a lot of people making those decisions loaded up on as much risk as they could take, ignoring the downsides.
I think the “pay no price for being wrong” formulation is stronger than the “gain nothing from being right” one because of loss aversion (which makes penalties a stronger incentive), and either is stronger than your second suggestion because of pithiness.
Good points.
My take on it: I’d noticed that “people who pay no price for being wrong” primed ideas of punishment in my mind, not just loss. “People who gain nothing from being right” primed ideas of commerce or professionalism — an engineer gains by being right, as does a military commander, a bettor, a venture capitalist, or the better sort of journalist.
And the third formulation doesn’t prime anything but “this sounds like Less Wrong”.
The biggest problem with your first alternative is that in it, not having an opinion is equivalent to being wrong.
A lot of the problems with the financial collapse was that various entities and people got to play with the money of other people, with good payouts if they get it right, but no commensurate hit if they got it wrong. While the best outcome is still being right, this kind of situation is bad because it incentivizes taking risk over not taking it. So, a lot of people making those decisions loaded up on as much risk as they could take, ignoring the downsides.