“The question is not whether cases will continue increasing, but rather whether the increase will accelerate and by how much. ”
Looking at what is currently happening here in Germany and its neighboring countries (e.g. Netherlands, Austria, Denmark) the increase is highly likely to accelerate.
Why can a look at these European countries be somewhat predictive for the US? Berlin and Amsterdam lie further north than Montreal or Toronto. And the climate table for Berlin in September is similar to the climate table for Chicago in October. Therefore I think that the behaviour of the delta variant due to seasonality here in Europe now can to some extent give an indication what is going to happen in the northern half of the US in about a month. And the vaccination rates here are higher than in the US (completely vaccinated: US 58.5%, Germany 67.1%, Netherlands 64.8%, Austria 64.9%, Denmark 75.7% - numbers are based on NPR and ECDC; there are slightly different numbers für the European countries depending on the source I look at, but the general picture is clear, I think.)
Given those vaccination numbers and what is happening here (see below) I believe that parts of the US Midwest are quite likely to be hit hard by a next wave at the end of the year with current vaccination rates of 53.9% (Michigan), 52.3% (Ohio) or 50.1% (Indiana). And even the high vaccination rates in the New England states (e.g. Vermont 71.8%) could not be enough to prevent a next wave without at least some countermeasures against transmissions beeing in place.
Germany
Germany is back into exponential growth. The seven-day-R-value in Germany has been fairly constant at about 1.2 since mid October. However the growth rates differ between the states by their vaccination rates (from 57.4% fully vaccinated in Saxony to 79.1% in Bremen). I have calculated the correlation between vaccination rates and 7-day-infection-rate of the 16 German states, the results were r = -.78, p < .001. The steepest rise was in Saxony with an increase in infections over one month of nearly 500% and in Thuringia with about 400% (RKI).
The states with lower vaccination rates, Saxony (57.4%), Thuringia (61.4%), Bavaria (65.4%), and Baden-Wuerttemberg (65.5%), report massive problems with their hospitals due to shortages in intensive care capacity. Currently, they are able to compensate this with transfers to other hospitals within state but they expect to be forced to transfer patients to other states soon. There are on a regular basis reports from different states about outbreaks in nursing homes with half a dozen fully vaccinated (2x) inhabitants dying of covid.
This development has happened within the following regulatory framework: Germany has maintained mask mandates in public places (however not in most schools). For many situations, e.g. bars and restaurants, there has been a rule of “3G” (geimpft, genesen, getestet = vaccinated, recovered in the last 6 months, recently tested), although there are increasing regulations with “2G” (only vaccinated or recovered, no entry for unvaccinated). There are no vaccination mandates, e.g. for the healthcare sector.
It is not clear yet which additional measures will be implemented. There is talk about possibly changing to “2G+” (only vaccinated or recovered, but both with an additional recent test) and about reintroducing home office mandates for business.
Netherlands
The Netherlands had stopped most countermeasure (mask mandates, social distancing) on September, 25, but has reintroduced those measures after seeing a strong increase in infections. This weekend they opted for a partial lockdown (e.g. shops and restaurants closing at 8:00 pm, max 4 visitors at home, home office if possible) - an announcement that has lead to massive public protests (France24). Austria
In Austria with a higher incidence than in Germany some states are imposing a lockdown for unvaccinated persons. It is planned to extend this lockdown for the unvaccinated nationwide (France24).
Denmark
Denmark with its high vaccination rate hasn’t had problems on the scale of the other countries mentioned above. They lifted their restrictions mid-September but a recent surge of infections has forced them to reconsider reintroducing some countermeasures (CNN).
Of course, the vaccination rates between Europe and the US can’t be compared without adjustments because e.g. the rates of natural immunity due to a prior infection can be different. But nevertheless, there are many parts of the northern half of the US with vaccinations rates so low that it seems unlikely that they will not have a massive infection wave. And Denmark with its very high vaccination rate shows that even the high vaccination rates in the New England states probably won’t be enough without additional countermeasures to escape the next wave.
Austria is also allowing for recovery from natural infection within the last 180 days.
I’m kind of hoping that when the Biden administration’s mandates get to the SCOTUS, instead of invalidating them completely, they demand a tweak like that (natural immunity). That would give that position the appearance of compromise.
“The question is not whether cases will continue increasing, but rather whether the increase will accelerate and by how much. ”
Looking at what is currently happening here in Germany and its neighboring countries (e.g. Netherlands, Austria, Denmark) the increase is highly likely to accelerate.
Why can a look at these European countries be somewhat predictive for the US? Berlin and Amsterdam lie further north than Montreal or Toronto. And the climate table for Berlin in September is similar to the climate table for Chicago in October. Therefore I think that the behaviour of the delta variant due to seasonality here in Europe now can to some extent give an indication what is going to happen in the northern half of the US in about a month. And the vaccination rates here are higher than in the US (completely vaccinated: US 58.5%, Germany 67.1%, Netherlands 64.8%, Austria 64.9%, Denmark 75.7% - numbers are based on NPR and ECDC; there are slightly different numbers für the European countries depending on the source I look at, but the general picture is clear, I think.)
Given those vaccination numbers and what is happening here (see below) I believe that parts of the US Midwest are quite likely to be hit hard by a next wave at the end of the year with current vaccination rates of 53.9% (Michigan), 52.3% (Ohio) or 50.1% (Indiana). And even the high vaccination rates in the New England states (e.g. Vermont 71.8%) could not be enough to prevent a next wave without at least some countermeasures against transmissions beeing in place.
Germany
Germany is back into exponential growth. The seven-day-R-value in Germany has been fairly constant at about 1.2 since mid October. However the growth rates differ between the states by their vaccination rates (from 57.4% fully vaccinated in Saxony to 79.1% in Bremen). I have calculated the correlation between vaccination rates and 7-day-infection-rate of the 16 German states, the results were r = -.78, p < .001. The steepest rise was in Saxony with an increase in infections over one month of nearly 500% and in Thuringia with about 400% (RKI).
The states with lower vaccination rates, Saxony (57.4%), Thuringia (61.4%), Bavaria (65.4%), and Baden-Wuerttemberg (65.5%), report massive problems with their hospitals due to shortages in intensive care capacity. Currently, they are able to compensate this with transfers to other hospitals within state but they expect to be forced to transfer patients to other states soon. There are on a regular basis reports from different states about outbreaks in nursing homes with half a dozen fully vaccinated (2x) inhabitants dying of covid.
This development has happened within the following regulatory framework: Germany has maintained mask mandates in public places (however not in most schools). For many situations, e.g. bars and restaurants, there has been a rule of “3G” (geimpft, genesen, getestet = vaccinated, recovered in the last 6 months, recently tested), although there are increasing regulations with “2G” (only vaccinated or recovered, no entry for unvaccinated). There are no vaccination mandates, e.g. for the healthcare sector.
It is not clear yet which additional measures will be implemented. There is talk about possibly changing to “2G+” (only vaccinated or recovered, but both with an additional recent test) and about reintroducing home office mandates for business.
Netherlands
The Netherlands had stopped most countermeasure (mask mandates, social distancing) on September, 25, but has reintroduced those measures after seeing a strong increase in infections. This weekend they opted for a partial lockdown (e.g. shops and restaurants closing at 8:00 pm, max 4 visitors at home, home office if possible) - an announcement that has lead to massive public protests (France24).
Austria
In Austria with a higher incidence than in Germany some states are imposing a lockdown for unvaccinated persons. It is planned to extend this lockdown for the unvaccinated nationwide (France24).
Denmark
Denmark with its high vaccination rate hasn’t had problems on the scale of the other countries mentioned above. They lifted their restrictions mid-September but a recent surge of infections has forced them to reconsider reintroducing some countermeasures (CNN).
Of course, the vaccination rates between Europe and the US can’t be compared without adjustments because e.g. the rates of natural immunity due to a prior infection can be different. But nevertheless, there are many parts of the northern half of the US with vaccinations rates so low that it seems unlikely that they will not have a massive infection wave. And Denmark with its very high vaccination rate shows that even the high vaccination rates in the New England states probably won’t be enough without additional countermeasures to escape the next wave.
Additional information:
A couple of hours ago Austria has decided to implement a lockdown for unvaccinated citizens in all its states (Reuters).
And I have looked at the numbers for their two states with low vaccination rates:
Upper Austria: 55.89 % fully vaccinated (1), 415% increase in the Covid incidence in the last 4 weeks
Salzburg: 57.06% fully vaccinated (1), 490% increase in the Covid incidence in the last 4 weeks
Sources: Coronavirus in Österreich, AGES Dashboard.
Which closely mirrors the growth rate for the German states with similiarily low vaccination rates (Saxony, Thuringia).
(1): Here, fully vaccinated does not imply a third, booster shot.
Austria is also allowing for recovery from natural infection within the last 180 days.
I’m kind of hoping that when the Biden administration’s mandates get to the SCOTUS, instead of invalidating them completely, they demand a tweak like that (natural immunity). That would give that position the appearance of compromise.