My prediction is that SOPA and PIPA will pass in pretty much their current form (if they haven’t already); the “write your Congressman” campaigns led by EFF, Wikipedia, and others, will have a negligible effect at best. However, I also predict that, in practice, SOPA will not be used to shut down any major website, such as Twitter or Youtube, though a non-trivial number of startups, personally hosted blogs, and other smaller websites will be taken down. Instead, the media industry will forge a deal with Google, Twitter, Facebook and other website providers, wherein the media industry receives an easy mechanism to take down whatever content they want at the click of a button—in exchange for a promise to never use the SOPA nuclear option against the website provider (*).
I also predict, though with lower probability, that at least one major court challenge will be brought up against SOPA/PIPA shortly after its inception. Should such a challenge be brought, I expect to see a drawn-out legal battle that spans several years and ultimately goes nowhere (other than a settlement, perhaps).
Once SOPA passes, I expect alternative DNS providers to put up a token resistance, then fall in line, bowing down to “financial incentives”, previous obligations, and outright legal intimidation. Alternative network infrastructure, such as Tor or Freenet or some new tool, will see a minor surge in popularity. If they really do take off (which I doubt), they will be quickly shut down in the name of fighting piracy, but an underground community of alternative network users will always exist.
I am very, very certain, however, that the average American internet user (and voter) will neither notice SOPA, nor care about it one way or the other.
(*) UMG claimed to have such a deal already in place, but it looks like they lied.
What about international effects? To my knowledge all the main DNS servers are located in the US, meaning that SOPA will apply to internet users in all countries...seems like other governments might take exception to that.
They might, but I predict that they won’t. After all, the Swedish government was perfectly willing to take orders directly from the MPAA once; why wouldn’t they do it again ? In addition, there are several trade agreements in place, such as ACTA, between the US and other nations; these agreements were crafted by the entertainment industry just as SOPA was, and work along the same lines. Even the relatively liberal Canada has implemented copyright policies that are similar to ours. All in all, I fully expect the international community to follow the US leadership on this subject.
I think that both types of petitions are likely to have a negligible effect. I agree that calling in person and sending physical mail is several times more effective, but x*epsilon is still epsilon.
My prediction is that SOPA and PIPA will pass in pretty much their current form (if they haven’t already); the “write your Congressman” campaigns led by EFF, Wikipedia, and others, will have a negligible effect at best. However, I also predict that, in practice, SOPA will not be used to shut down any major website, such as Twitter or Youtube, though a non-trivial number of startups, personally hosted blogs, and other smaller websites will be taken down. Instead, the media industry will forge a deal with Google, Twitter, Facebook and other website providers, wherein the media industry receives an easy mechanism to take down whatever content they want at the click of a button—in exchange for a promise to never use the SOPA nuclear option against the website provider (*).
I also predict, though with lower probability, that at least one major court challenge will be brought up against SOPA/PIPA shortly after its inception. Should such a challenge be brought, I expect to see a drawn-out legal battle that spans several years and ultimately goes nowhere (other than a settlement, perhaps).
Once SOPA passes, I expect alternative DNS providers to put up a token resistance, then fall in line, bowing down to “financial incentives”, previous obligations, and outright legal intimidation. Alternative network infrastructure, such as Tor or Freenet or some new tool, will see a minor surge in popularity. If they really do take off (which I doubt), they will be quickly shut down in the name of fighting piracy, but an underground community of alternative network users will always exist.
I am very, very certain, however, that the average American internet user (and voter) will neither notice SOPA, nor care about it one way or the other.
(*) UMG claimed to have such a deal already in place, but it looks like they lied.
What about international effects? To my knowledge all the main DNS servers are located in the US, meaning that SOPA will apply to internet users in all countries...seems like other governments might take exception to that.
They might, but I predict that they won’t. After all, the Swedish government was perfectly willing to take orders directly from the MPAA once; why wouldn’t they do it again ? In addition, there are several trade agreements in place, such as ACTA, between the US and other nations; these agreements were crafted by the entertainment industry just as SOPA was, and work along the same lines. Even the relatively liberal Canada has implemented copyright policies that are similar to ours. All in all, I fully expect the international community to follow the US leadership on this subject.
If you mean email and petitions, then yes. Writing actual physical mail and actually picking up the phone to call has more impact.
I think that both types of petitions are likely to have a negligible effect. I agree that calling in person and sending physical mail is several times more effective, but x*epsilon is still epsilon.