In the multiplayer roleplaying game ss13, one player gets the rare and coveted role of wizard, and can now choose his magic ability/equipment purchases. First he buys an apprentice, choosing me randomly from all ghosts (players without a role, observing the game) that would like it. Next he considers picking an ability that will let him spawn additional ghost roles during play. Let’s say there’s a 50% chance of an extra ghost, it’s barely worth it in that case so he picks it.
But let’s suppose I were the one with the choice. If over the years I get asked 4 times whether I want to play Apprentice, I’m gonna get picked 3 times out of 4, and 2 of those three times there’s no extra ghosts. So I shouldn’t buy the ability. But we’re on the same team, so this doesn’t make sense! What’s going on?
Ah, I got it. Just as I update towards the ghost pool being smaller when I get picked, I should update towards the ghost pool being larger when I find myself as a ghost in the first place. These updates cancel out, and I should buy the ability.
In the multiplayer roleplaying game ss13, one player gets the rare and coveted role of wizard, and can now choose his magic ability/equipment purchases. First he buys an apprentice, choosing me randomly from all ghosts (players without a role, observing the game) that would like it. Next he considers picking an ability that will let him spawn additional ghost roles during play. Let’s say there’s a 50% chance of an extra ghost, it’s barely worth it in that case so he picks it.
But let’s suppose I were the one with the choice. If over the years I get asked 4 times whether I want to play Apprentice, I’m gonna get picked 3 times out of 4, and 2 of those three times there’s no extra ghosts. So I shouldn’t buy the ability. But we’re on the same team, so this doesn’t make sense! What’s going on?
Ah, I got it. Just as I update towards the ghost pool being smaller when I get picked, I should update towards the ghost pool being larger when I find myself as a ghost in the first place. These updates cancel out, and I should buy the ability.