As the prediction markets on Trump winning went from ~50% to ~100% over 6 hours, S&P 500 futures moved less than the rest of the time. Why?
Were whichever markets you’re looking at open at this time? Most stuff doesn’t trade that much out of hours.
https://www.google.com/search?q=spx futures
I was specifically looking at Nov 5th 0:00-6:00, which twitched enough to show aliveness, while manifold and polymarket moved in smooth synchrony.
As the prediction markets on Trump winning went from ~50% to ~100% over 6 hours, S&P 500 futures moved less than the rest of the time. Why?
Were whichever markets you’re looking at open at this time? Most stuff doesn’t trade that much out of hours.
https://www.google.com/search?q=spx futures
I was specifically looking at Nov 5th 0:00-6:00, which twitched enough to show aliveness, while manifold and polymarket moved in smooth synchrony.