Why is an extreme probability estimate a sign of overconfidence? I would think that confidence in one’s estimate is based on the size of your error bars, and someone who thinks event X has 0.01 probability is not necessarily more confident than someone who thinks event X has 0.1 probability.
We are concerned not with a person’s confidence in the probability they assign to X, but in their confidence in their prediction that X will or will not happen.
Why is an extreme probability estimate a sign of overconfidence? I would think that confidence in one’s estimate is based on the size of your error bars, and someone who thinks event X has 0.01 probability is not necessarily more confident than someone who thinks event X has 0.1 probability.
We are concerned not with a person’s confidence in the probability they assign to X, but in their confidence in their prediction that X will or will not happen.