I just don’t think that the impact of superhuman intelligence will be all that dramatic.
The impact of human-level intelligence has been fairly dramatic—looking at the current mass extinction. Presumably you have already heard the spiel about how important intelligence is.
And, collectively, the existing 1000x improvements listed above are likely to prove at least as transformative as the prospective 1000x in intelligence.
The biggest transformation seems likely when machines surpass humans in most areas of the job marketplace. To do that, they need good intelligence—and good bodies. So far, they don’t have either really—but it seems plausible that, fairly soon, they will have both of these things.
After that, humans will survive largely as parasites on a machine-based economy.
In effect, I am saying that most of the things that can be done by a 1000x-human AI could also be done by the collective effort of a thousand or so 1x-humans. And that the few things that can not be done by that kind of collective effort are not going to be all that transformative.
If machines are 10% better than humans, they will get the jobs. Maybe humans could have done the same thing eventually (and maybe not) - but they are unemployed—so they won’t get the chance to do so. The rise of the machines represents a fairly major transformation—even now, when the machines have only a tiny percentage of the planet’s biomass. If they start to outweigh us, that seems like a pretty big deal to me.
The impact of human-level intelligence has been fairly dramatic—looking at the current mass extinction.
You mean the one that started roughly 15,000 years ago? Yes, a truly dramatic change!
The biggest transformation seems likely when machines surpass humans in most areas of the job marketplace.
True. And at that point, humans will begin to derive more than half of their income from their ownership of capital and land. And those humans without capital or land may not be able survive, let alone to reproduce. Mankind has been in this position before, though.
The impact of human-level intelligence has been fairly dramatic—looking at the current mass extinction.
You mean the one that started roughly 15,000 years ago? Yes, a truly dramatic change!
You have different tastes in drama from me. For me, a mass extinction is a big deal. Especially so, if the species to which I belong looks as though it may be one of those that goes up against the wall in it.
Mankind has been in this position before, though.
Well, not exactly this position: we haven’t come across critters that are much stronger, faster and smarter than us before.
The impact of human-level intelligence has been fairly dramatic—looking at the current mass extinction. Presumably you have already heard the spiel about how important intelligence is.
The biggest transformation seems likely when machines surpass humans in most areas of the job marketplace. To do that, they need good intelligence—and good bodies. So far, they don’t have either really—but it seems plausible that, fairly soon, they will have both of these things.
After that, humans will survive largely as parasites on a machine-based economy.
If machines are 10% better than humans, they will get the jobs. Maybe humans could have done the same thing eventually (and maybe not) - but they are unemployed—so they won’t get the chance to do so. The rise of the machines represents a fairly major transformation—even now, when the machines have only a tiny percentage of the planet’s biomass. If they start to outweigh us, that seems like a pretty big deal to me.
You mean the one that started roughly 15,000 years ago? Yes, a truly dramatic change!
True. And at that point, humans will begin to derive more than half of their income from their ownership of capital and land. And those humans without capital or land may not be able survive, let alone to reproduce. Mankind has been in this position before, though.
You have different tastes in drama from me. For me, a mass extinction is a big deal. Especially so, if the species to which I belong looks as though it may be one of those that goes up against the wall in it.
Well, not exactly this position: we haven’t come across critters that are much stronger, faster and smarter than us before.