Most of them seem… quite wrong, and also called out as overconfident at the time. (See, as an example, James Miller here, and gwern’s response.) And many of the rest seem pretty business-as-usual; like orthonomal’s prediction that health care expenditures would be approximately as predicted (they came in lower than that, at $3.6 trillion).
Most of them seem… quite wrong, and also called out as overconfident at the time. (See, as an example, James Miller here, and gwern’s response.) And many of the rest seem pretty business-as-usual; like orthonomal’s prediction that health care expenditures would be approximately as predicted (they came in lower than that, at $3.6 trillion).