some organisms are amazingly specialized. Perhaps the narrowest ecologic niche of all is that of a species of the fungus family Laboulbeniaceae, which grows exclusively on the rear portion of the elytra of the beetle Aphenops cronei, which is found only in some limestone caves in southern France. Larvae of the fly Psilopa petrolei develop in seepages of crude oil in California oilfields; as far as is known they occur nowhere else. This is the only insect able to live and feed in oil, and its adult can walk on the surface of the oil only as long as no body part other than the tarsi are in contact with the oil. Larvae of the fly Drosophila carciniphila develop only in the nephric grooves beneath the flaps of the third maxilliped of the land crab Geocarcinus ruricola, which is restricted to certain islands in the Caribbean.
Our results were strong and consistent, but our experiments all involved a foreign election – that 2010 election in Australia. Could voting preferences be shifted with real voters in the middle of a real campaign? We were skeptical. In real elections, people are bombarded with multiple sources of information, and they also know a lot about the candidates. It seemed unlikely that a single experience on a search engine would have much impact on their voting preferences.
To find out, in early 2014, we went to India just before voting began in the largest democratic election in the world – the Lok Sabha election for prime minister. The three main candidates were Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, and Narendra Modi. Making use of online subject pools and both online and print advertisements, we recruited 2,150 people from 27 of India’s 35 states and territories to participate in our experiment. To take part, they had to be registered voters who had not yet voted and who were still undecided about how they would vote.
Participants were randomly assigned to three search-engine groups, favouring, respectively, Gandhi, Kejriwal or Modi. As one might expect, familiarity levels with the candidates was high – between 7.7 and 8.5 on a scale of 10. We predicted that our manipulation would produce a very small effect, if any, but that’s not what we found. On average, we were able to shift the proportion of people favouring any given candidate by more than 20 per cent overall and more than 60 per cent in some demographic groups. Even more disturbing, 99.5 per cent of our participants showed no awareness that they were viewing biased search rankings – in other words, that they were being manipulated.
Short Online Texts Thread
Everything is heritable:
“A general intelligence factor in [border colly] dogs”, Arden & Adams 2016
“GWAS of 89,283 individuals identifies genetic variants associated with self-reporting of being a morning person”, Hu et al 2016
Politics/religion:
“Cuban missile crisis: The other, secret one”
“The Market for Sanctimony, or why we need Yet Another Space Alien Cult (YASAC)”
“So Far Unfruitful, Fusion Project Faces a Frugal Congress”
Thomas Jefferson and planning the University of Virginia
Statistics/AI/meta-science:
“PlaNet—Photo Geolocation with Convolutional Neural Networks”, Weyand et al 2016
“When Quality Beats Quantity: Decision Theory, Drug Discovery, and the Reproducibility Crisis”, Scannell & Bosley 2016
“Deming, data and observational studies: A process out of control and needing fixing”
“Online Controlled Experiments: Introduction, Learnings, and Humbling Statistics”
“My published negative result...”
Gambler’s ruin
“Bayesian estimation supersedes the t test”, Kruschke 2012
“Electoral Precedent”
“A Bayesian view of Amazon Resellers”
Psychology/biology:
“Aldehyde-stabilized cryopreservation”, McIntyre & Fahy 2015 wins the Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize by passing their evaluation (commentary)
“Effects of Initiating Moderate Alcohol Intake on Cardiometabolic Risk in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A 2-Year Randomized, Controlled Trial”, Gepner et al 2015
“Be Happier”
“My son’s flashcard routine”
“A Mole of Moles”
“We Add Near, Average Far”
“Nothing in Biology Makes Sense Except in the Light of Evolution”
“The animals that sniff out TB, cancer and landmines”
“Parenting and Happiness”
Is sleep to save energy?
Technology:
“Gravitational Waves Exist: The Inside Story of How Scientists Finally Found Them”
“How Did Software Get So Reliable Without Proof?”, Hoare 1996 (comments)
“Stargate Physics 101” (“Testing is sufficient to show the presence of bugs, but not the absence.”)
Merkle’s Puzzles
On Ray Kurzweil
Pokemon: determining the personality settings
“Can you use a magnifying glass and moonlight to light a fire?”
Economics:
“The life of American workers in 1915”
“Patents and innovation in economic history”, Moser 2016
“Elephants and Mammoths: Can Ice Ivory Save Blood Ivory?”, Farah & Boyce 2015
Philosophy:
“Technology will destroy human nature”
“Lord Russell meet Lord Russell”
Just wanted to say that I really appreciate your link roundups and look forward to them every month.
I gave you a thumbs up in agreement but didn’t give one to Gwern for his links. Pointing-something-out bias?
-- Nothing in Biology Makes Sense Except in the Light of Evolution
“The search engine manipulation effect (SEME) and its possible impact on the outcomes of elections”, Robert Epstein
Popular writeup here
Conservation of computation, conservation of distress and conservation of mental effort are higher order values than the empirical truth in humans
An interesting Wikipedia article: Arguments for and against drug prohibition. Very well organised but poor standard of evidence (expert testimony).
you cannot afford to continue your life insurance when you need it the most even if you can get it.. Get US life insurance or pay directly if you’re interested in Aussie cyroncics.
Fair enough actually has negative and judgemental connotations. It’s not equivelant to ‘okay’
List of quotes by Zig Ziglar. Such wisdom!
A simple technique called “anxious reappraisal” might help people channel nervous jitters into improved performance.