After reviewing the evidence, both of the EA acquisition and the cessation of Lightcone collaboration with the Fooming Shoggoths, I’m updating my p(doom) upwards 10 percentage points, from 0.99 to 1.09.
Where is it now? :P
I have not been able to independently verify this observation, but am open to further evidence if and only if it updates my p(doom) higher.
After reviewing the evidence, both of the EA acquisition and the cessation of Lightcone collaboration with the Fooming Shoggoths, I’m updating my p(doom) upwards 10 percentage points, from 0.99 to 1.09.
Where is it now? :P
I have not been able to independently verify this observation, but am open to further evidence if and only if it updates my p(doom) higher.