When it comes to China a crucial question is how much more contagious Omicron is in a naive population (i.e. how much of Omicron’s tramsmission advantage is not explained by its potential for breakthrough infections.) Do we have good estimates for that?
See my above comment, where I was trying to get a handle on this. It increasingly seems like the answer is that most of it comes from breakthrough+serial intervals
When it comes to China a crucial question is how much more contagious Omicron is in a naive population (i.e. how much of Omicron’s tramsmission advantage is not explained by its potential for breakthrough infections.) Do we have good estimates for that?
Yes, per this Danish study Omicron is actually not more infectious for immo-naive persons, at least in household setting:
https://twitter.com/ProfPHansen/status/1476308265764102144
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1
Transmission advantage mostly, if not completely, coming from immun escape + shorter generational interval.
See my above comment, where I was trying to get a handle on this. It increasingly seems like the answer is that most of it comes from breakthrough+serial intervals