I’m not sure whether “Is this dream promising too much?” is a good question. It seems to me like any person who starts a startup and things about building a billion dollar company could use this filter to reject his startup idea.
I think it’s problematic mostly because it’s binary. Dreams with a very large potential payoff are fine, but one should examine whether the value only comes at the end, and only if everything goes right. The dreams to follow are those that promise way too much, but have lots of “failure” paths that promise a positive amount.
Note that the opposite failure mode should be avoided as well; if your dream is easily achieved, you should be asking “does it promise enough”?
I think it’s a good question because dreams that promise too much can seem more feasible than they are, and dialing down the attractiveness might work better than trying to convince yourself than it’s not feasible.
I’m not sure whether “Is this dream promising too much?” is a good question. It seems to me like any person who starts a startup and things about building a billion dollar company could use this filter to reject his startup idea.
I think it’s problematic mostly because it’s binary. Dreams with a very large potential payoff are fine, but one should examine whether the value only comes at the end, and only if everything goes right. The dreams to follow are those that promise way too much, but have lots of “failure” paths that promise a positive amount.
Note that the opposite failure mode should be avoided as well; if your dream is easily achieved, you should be asking “does it promise enough”?
I think it’s a good question because dreams that promise too much can seem more feasible than they are, and dialing down the attractiveness might work better than trying to convince yourself than it’s not feasible.
Dreams that promise little can also seem more feasible than they are.
And they may be right if starting a startup has negative expected utility. You can’t assume it’s a good idea by only looking at winners.