Agree that the meaning of the ranges is very ill-defined. I think I am most often drawn to this when I have a few different heuristics that seem applicable. Example of internals: One is just how likely this feels when I query one of my predictive engines and another is just some very crude “outside view”/eyeballed statistic that estimates how well I did on this in the past. Weighing these against each other causes lots of cognitive dissonance for me, so I don’t like doing it.
Agree that the meaning of the ranges is very ill-defined. I think I am most often drawn to this when I have a few different heuristics that seem applicable. Example of internals: One is just how likely this feels when I query one of my predictive engines and another is just some very crude “outside view”/eyeballed statistic that estimates how well I did on this in the past. Weighing these against each other causes lots of cognitive dissonance for me, so I don’t like doing it.