I think it does matter: I don’t think we have a strong sense of the base rate of lab leaks causing pandemics, so one sample would be informative.
Also, some of the experts would shift their views if the origin were known:
One reason to continue studying the origin of COVID-19 is
because further knowledge about it could inform beliefs
and policies for future pandemics. Therefore, the survey
asked experts to imagine that the origin of COVID-19 has
been found, and to consider how that might change their
beliefs about the origin of the next pandemic. If COVID-19
is found to be from a zoonotic origin, a slight majority of
experts reported that there would be no change in their
beliefs, as seen in the “No Change” portion of the graph
at right [Annex Tables F20 and F21]. However, if COVID-19 is
found to be caused by a research-related accident, then
a slight majority of experts would change their beliefs
about the likelihood of the next pandemic also being from
a research-related accident, with 42% increasing their
estimate of the likelihood of the next pandemic being from
a research-related accident. In most cases, if COVID-19 is
found to have a certain type of origin (natural zoonosis or research-related accident), then that same type of origin is overall believed to become more likely for the next pandemic. The exception is that if COVID-19 is found to be from a research-related accident. Then, for the next pandemic, natural zoonosis becomes more likely for a larger number of experts as compared to it becoming less
likely (22% vs. 15%). In all of these cases, the survey does
not ask how much more or less likely the origin of the next
pandemic would be.
I think it does matter: I don’t think we have a strong sense of the base rate of lab leaks causing pandemics, so one sample would be informative.
Also, some of the experts would shift their views if the origin were known: