So, I think the Rationalist subculture’s embrace of the lab leak hypothesis is probably a mistake- and more importantly, I think it’s probably an epistemic failure, especially if we don’t update soon on the shift in expert opinion and the results of things like this debate.
The main shift in expert opinion I see is that in 2020 those experts said that everyone speaking about the lab leak hypothesis is a conspiracy theorist to now being more open about the possibility of a lab leak. We also saw some experts like those at the Department of Energy and FBI to switch to believing the lab leak is the most likely explanation.
The main shift in expert opinion I see is that in 2020 those experts said that everyone speaking about the lab leak hypothesis is a conspiracy theorist to now being more open about the possibility of a lab leak. We also saw some experts like those at the Department of Energy and FBI to switch to believing the lab leak is the most likely explanation.