I started to rephrase “how often might I be wrong?” into “how many of my acquintances (who are alike me) might be wrong on this question?”.
And “which range am I confident this value must be in?” becomes “which range of values might my friends guess this to be?”.
I started to rephrase “how often might I be wrong?” into “how many of my acquintances (who are alike me) might be wrong on this question?”. And “which range am I confident this value must be in?” becomes “which range of values might my friends guess this to be?”.