You might not want to accept in order to limit total risk, but I would like to take the $100 side of this bet if you are agreeable.
This is not because I think your project is guaranteed to fail, but because there is definitely a chance much larger than 10% chance of at least one person saying that they suffered significant emotional distress. Your implied odds here are very overconfident. If there are e.g .six participants, a chance of 98% of not saying that they had such distress implies an approximately 12% chance of someone saying that they did.
Yeah, I have to limit total financial risk, but I can at least offer you a bet of something like $200 to $20.
Note that I’m very specifically betting about emotional distress because of the unique aspects of the experiment, and not simply “no one will be distressed at any time.” Like, I’m not betting at ten to one odds that no one’s going to have a rough month or get angry at one another, I’m just betting that it won’t be because of any of the ways in which Dragon Army is different from casual group housing.
$200 to $20 is fine, as well as the limitation to the specific aspects of this group house, as long as the fact of this matter is judged based on the self assessment of the participants. (That is, if some participant says it was because of those aspects, I win the bet, without further investigation into the accuracy of their claim.)
For an experiment that is going to have an explicit cost in the tens of thousands of dollars, and an even higher implicit cost, $1000 doesn’t seem like very much to bet on an aspect of it which you are confident in.
Not that the experiment would necessarily be an overall failure if some participants experience great emotional stress and washed out. A sufficiently high performance pressure org should expect wash outs.
(For what it’s worth, I am sympathetic to the sort of thing you’re trying to do here, and would be interested in participating in a similar experiment, but am very turned off by particular elements of your approach.)
Betting $1000 has a low cost, but betting $1000 multiple times adds up; I don’t make very much money and won’t be making any through this experiment (indeed, I expect to lose money funding various little projects).
Yeah that’s reasonable. I read your post as being unwilling to bet even $1000 overall, my b if that was a misinterpretation.
I didn’t expect you would be making any money on this venture (social organizing is usually expensive) - I expect that anyone willing to put together a venture like this is doing it because they think the outcome will be good, not because they think it will be personally profitable.
Regardless, I look forward to seeing what comes of your experiment.
You might not want to accept in order to limit total risk, but I would like to take the $100 side of this bet if you are agreeable.
This is not because I think your project is guaranteed to fail, but because there is definitely a chance much larger than 10% chance of at least one person saying that they suffered significant emotional distress. Your implied odds here are very overconfident. If there are e.g .six participants, a chance of 98% of not saying that they had such distress implies an approximately 12% chance of someone saying that they did.
Yeah, I have to limit total financial risk, but I can at least offer you a bet of something like $200 to $20.
Note that I’m very specifically betting about emotional distress because of the unique aspects of the experiment, and not simply “no one will be distressed at any time.” Like, I’m not betting at ten to one odds that no one’s going to have a rough month or get angry at one another, I’m just betting that it won’t be because of any of the ways in which Dragon Army is different from casual group housing.
$200 to $20 is fine, as well as the limitation to the specific aspects of this group house, as long as the fact of this matter is judged based on the self assessment of the participants. (That is, if some participant says it was because of those aspects, I win the bet, without further investigation into the accuracy of their claim.)
Yeah, it absolutely should come from the participants, free of investigatory pressures. Confirmed!
For an experiment that is going to have an explicit cost in the tens of thousands of dollars, and an even higher implicit cost, $1000 doesn’t seem like very much to bet on an aspect of it which you are confident in.
Not that the experiment would necessarily be an overall failure if some participants experience great emotional stress and washed out. A sufficiently high performance pressure org should expect wash outs.
(For what it’s worth, I am sympathetic to the sort of thing you’re trying to do here, and would be interested in participating in a similar experiment, but am very turned off by particular elements of your approach.)
Betting $1000 has a low cost, but betting $1000 multiple times adds up; I don’t make very much money and won’t be making any through this experiment (indeed, I expect to lose money funding various little projects).
Yeah that’s reasonable. I read your post as being unwilling to bet even $1000 overall, my b if that was a misinterpretation.
I didn’t expect you would be making any money on this venture (social organizing is usually expensive) - I expect that anyone willing to put together a venture like this is doing it because they think the outcome will be good, not because they think it will be personally profitable.
Regardless, I look forward to seeing what comes of your experiment.