You’re welcome to have your prior of “I think very few people could navigate these kinds of social issues” cause you to bet, in each specific case, that the answer is “no;” default skepticism is clearly the logical strategy there.
But I don’t know where you got the impression that I was trying to update your opinion/satisfy you, or even providing evidence that potentially could. Like, sure, if you conceptualize all of this as “Duncan trying to impress the general public and get them to endorse him personally,” then this is a pretty poor showing—but that wasn’t what this post was for. It’s not one of the targets and never was.
I was seeking as many concrete, object-level criticisms and ideas as I could find, and that’s it. I get that you’re not convinced of me personally, but I was never trying to convince you in the first place; you thinking I’m overconfident or not is pretty noisy evidence and not worth optimizing for. (Further, I posit that attempting to be convincing via internet comments would be a fool’s errand anyway.)
The simple fact is, I am indeed one of those very few people. I can point to three or four other people who are better just in my own small social circle, but they’re busy doing other things and can’t take the time to start a house. You’ll note that there are a few people openly testifying as to my ability in these comments, and also that the biggest testimony is “deciding to join in,” of which twenty did on an experimental weekend and around ten are planning to, long haul.
You’re welcome to have your prior of “I think very few people could navigate these kinds of social issues” cause you to bet, in each specific case, that the answer is “no;” default skepticism is clearly the logical strategy there.
But I don’t know where you got the impression that I was trying to update your opinion/satisfy you, or even providing evidence that potentially could. Like, sure, if you conceptualize all of this as “Duncan trying to impress the general public and get them to endorse him personally,” then this is a pretty poor showing—but that wasn’t what this post was for. It’s not one of the targets and never was.
I was seeking as many concrete, object-level criticisms and ideas as I could find, and that’s it. I get that you’re not convinced of me personally, but I was never trying to convince you in the first place; you thinking I’m overconfident or not is pretty noisy evidence and not worth optimizing for. (Further, I posit that attempting to be convincing via internet comments would be a fool’s errand anyway.)
The simple fact is, I am indeed one of those very few people. I can point to three or four other people who are better just in my own small social circle, but they’re busy doing other things and can’t take the time to start a house. You’ll note that there are a few people openly testifying as to my ability in these comments, and also that the biggest testimony is “deciding to join in,” of which twenty did on an experimental weekend and around ten are planning to, long haul.