So, this is exactly the sort of thing prediction markets should do well at, right? People without structural incentives to ignore a problem can make accurate predictions and make money. People who care about it can point to the market prices when making their point.
In the black swan case, I think prediction markets will do only somewhat better than alternatives, but here they should do vastly better. Right?
So, this is exactly the sort of thing prediction markets should do well at, right? People without structural incentives to ignore a problem can make accurate predictions and make money. People who care about it can point to the market prices when making their point.
In the black swan case, I think prediction markets will do only somewhat better than alternatives, but here they should do vastly better. Right?