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Random Thoughts on Predict-O-Matic

abramdemski17 Oct 2019 23:39 UTC

35 points

3 comments9 min readLW link

The best of the www, in my opinion

aiiixiii17 Oct 2019 15:14 UTC

19 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

Festival Stats 2019

jefftk17 Oct 2019 11:00 UTC

8 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

The Dualist Predict-O-Matic ($100 prize)

John_Maxwell17 Oct 2019 6:45 UTC

19 points

35 comments5 min readLW link

A Money Dojo

Elo16 Oct 2019 20:35 UTC

16 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

Epistemic Spot Checks: The Fall of Rome

Elizabeth16 Oct 2019 18:40 UTC

38 points

2 comments8 min readLW link

(acesounderglass.com)

Introducing Foretold.io: A New Open-Source Prediction Registry

ozziegooen16 Oct 2019 14:23 UTC

79 points

10 comments3 min readLW link

Make more land

jefftk16 Oct 2019 11:20 UTC

167 points

36 comments2 min readLW link 5 reviews

(www.jefftk.com)

Full toy model for preference learning

Stuart_Armstrong16 Oct 2019 11:06 UTC

20 points

2 comments12 min readLW link

Gradient hacking

evhub16 Oct 2019 0:53 UTC

106 points

39 comments3 min readLW link 2 reviews

Always Discard Fascist Policies

David Spies15 Oct 2019 22:23 UTC

15 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

Philadelphia SSC Meetup

Majuscule15 Oct 2019 17:41 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Transportation Tracking

jefftk15 Oct 2019 11:00 UTC

10 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

SSC Madison: Meditations on Raikoth

marywang15 Oct 2019 3:42 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

TAISU 2019 Field Report

Gordon Seidoh Worley15 Oct 2019 1:09 UTC

36 points

5 comments5 min readLW link

The Parable of Predict-O-Matic

abramdemski15 Oct 2019 0:49 UTC

353 points

43 comments14 min readLW link 2 reviews

Strong stances

KatjaGrace15 Oct 2019 0:40 UTC

27 points

9 comments9 min readLW link

(meteuphoric.com)

Impact measurement and value-neutrality verification

evhub15 Oct 2019 0:06 UTC

31 points

13 comments6 min readLW link

Schematic Thinking: heuristic generalization using Korzybski’s method

romeostevensit14 Oct 2019 19:29 UTC

27 points

7 comments3 min readLW link

[AN #68]: The attainable utility theory of impact

Rohin Shah14 Oct 2019 17:00 UTC

17 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

(mailchi.mp)

Whistle-based Synthesis

jefftk14 Oct 2019 12:10 UTC

7 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Maybe Lying Doesn’t Exist

Zack_M_Davis14 Oct 2019 7:04 UTC

70 points

58 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What would the world be like if everyone was a rationalist?

Nikolas Mitropoulos14 Oct 2019 5:29 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Fall Pittsburgh SSC Meetup

fr8train14 Oct 2019 3:32 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Regarding Archimedes (a philosophy of math anecdote)

KyriakosCH13 Oct 2019 21:25 UTC

2 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

MA Price Accuracy Law

jefftk13 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC

15 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What’s going on with “provability”?

Sunny from QAD13 Oct 2019 3:59 UTC

23 points

22 comments1 min readLW link

AI alignment landscape

paulfchristiano13 Oct 2019 2:10 UTC

40 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(ai-alignment.com)

Prediction Markets Don’t Reveal The Territory

JohnBuridan12 Oct 2019 23:54 UTC

6 points

14 comments3 min readLW link

SSC Meetup 10/12: Minneapolis / St. Paul

Drake Thomas12 Oct 2019 15:44 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Planned Power Outages

jefftk12 Oct 2019 14:10 UTC

27 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

A simple sketch of how realism became unpopular

Rob Bensinger11 Oct 2019 22:25 UTC

63 points

55 comments4 min readLW link

A Short Introduction to Theory of Change

Ian David Moss11 Oct 2019 19:00 UTC

6 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Rent Needs to Decrease

jefftk11 Oct 2019 12:40 UTC

15 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

When we substantially modify an old post should we edit directly or post a version 2?

Chris_Leong11 Oct 2019 10:40 UTC

11 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

Sets and Functions

countedblessings11 Oct 2019 5:06 UTC

31 points

22 comments10 min readLW link

Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 4 - Smaller things that I’ve learned

Adam Zerner11 Oct 2019 1:26 UTC

21 points

8 comments6 min readLW link

Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 3 - What I’ve learned

Adam Zerner11 Oct 2019 0:49 UTC

29 points

34 comments15 min readLW link

How feasible is long-range forecasting?

Ben Pace10 Oct 2019 22:11 UTC

40 points

7 comments2 min readLW link

(www.openphilanthropy.org)

[Question] I would like to try double crux.

valentinslepukhin10 Oct 2019 21:34 UTC

11 points

152 comments1 min readLW link

The Baconian Method (Novum Organum Book 1: 93-107)

Francis Bacon10 Oct 2019 18:54 UTC

28 points

1 comment11 min readLW link

“Mild Hallucination” Test

Logan Riggs10 Oct 2019 17:57 UTC

9 points

55 comments2 min readLW link

What is the real “danger zone” for food?

jefftk10 Oct 2019 11:00 UTC

8 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

CPH meetup 10/20/19

Sønderjye10 Oct 2019 10:08 UTC

10 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on “Human-Compatible”

TurnTrout10 Oct 2019 5:24 UTC

64 points

34 comments5 min readLW link

Western Massachusetts SSC meetup #17

a_lieb10 Oct 2019 2:44 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Examples of Categories

countedblessings10 Oct 2019 1:25 UTC

27 points

2 comments5 min readLW link

Long Term Future Fund application is closing this Friday (October 11th)

habryka10 Oct 2019 0:44 UTC

26 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(docs.google.com)

Minimization of prediction error as a foundation for human values in AI alignment

Gordon Seidoh Worley9 Oct 2019 18:23 UTC

15 points

42 comments5 min readLW link

Expected Value- Millionaires Math

Matt Goldenberg9 Oct 2019 14:50 UTC

8 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(foreverjobless.com)