I might be missing the forest for the trees, but all of those still feel like they end up making some kinds of predictions based on the model, even if they’re not trivial to test. Something like:
If Alice were informed by some neutral party that she took Bob’s apple, Charlie would predict that she would not show meaningful remorse or try to make up for the damage done beyond trivial gestures like an off-hand “sorry” as well as claiming that some other minor extraction of resources is likely to follow, while Diana would predict that Alice would treat her overreach more seriously when informed of it. Something similar can be done on the meta-level.
None of these are slamdunks, and there are a bunch of reasons why the predictions might turn out exactly as laid out by Charlie or Diana, but that just feels like how Bayesian cookies crumble, and I would definitely expect evidence to accumulate over time in one direction or the other.
Strong opinion weakly held: it feels like an iterated version of this prediction-making and tracking over time is how our native bad actor detection algorithms function. It seems to me that shining more light on this mechanism would be good.
I am not one of the Old Guard, but I have an uneasy feeling about something related to the Chakra phenomenon.
It feels like there’s a lot of hidden value clustered around wooy topics like Chakras and Tulpas, and the right orientation towards these topics seems fairly straightforward: if it calls out to you, investigate and, if you please, report. What feels less clear to me is how I as an individual or as a member of some broader rat community should respond when, according to me, people do not certain forms of bullshit tests.
This comes from someone with little interest or knowledge about the former, but after accidentally stumbling into some Tulpa-related territory and bumbling around in it for a while, it turns out that the Internal Family Systems model captures a large part of what I was grasping towards, this time with testable predictions and the whole deal.
I haven’t given the individual-as-part-of-community thing that much thought, but my intuition is that I would make a poor judge for when to say “nope, your thing is BS” and I’m not sure what metric we might use to figure out who would make for a better judge besides overall faith in reasoning capability.