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SimonM

Karma: 1,028

Hiring de­ci­sions are not suit­able for pre­dic­tion markets

SimonMJan 8, 2024, 9:11 PM
12 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets aren’t Magic

SimonMDec 21, 2023, 12:54 PM
90 points
29 comments3 min readLW link

How to In­ter­pret Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Prices as Probabilities

SimonMMay 9, 2023, 2:12 PM
14 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Is Me­tac­u­lus Slow to Up­date?

SimonMMar 25, 2022, 7:44 PM
75 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices—Resolution

SimonMJan 2, 2022, 11:55 AM
56 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Risk Premiums vs Pre­dic­tion Markets

SimonMJul 28, 2021, 11:03 PM
35 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices

SimonMApr 27, 2021, 2:03 PM
51 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Never Go Full Kelly

SimonMFeb 25, 2021, 12:53 PM
51 points
7 comments8 min readLW link

Kelly isn’t (just) about log­a­r­ith­mic utility

SimonMFeb 23, 2021, 12:12 PM
35 points
41 comments4 min readLW link