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SimonM
Karma:
1,028
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Hiring decisions are not suitable for prediction markets
SimonM
Jan 8, 2024, 9:11 PM
12
points
6
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Prediction Markets aren’t Magic
SimonM
Dec 21, 2023, 12:54 PM
90
points
29
comments
3
min read
LW
link
How to Interpret Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
SimonM
May 9, 2023, 2:12 PM
14
points
1
comment
4
min read
LW
link
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
Mar 25, 2022, 7:44 PM
75
points
9
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices—Resolution
SimonM
Jan 2, 2022, 11:55 AM
56
points
12
comments
1
min read
LW
link
Risk Premiums vs Prediction Markets
SimonM
Jul 28, 2021, 11:03 PM
35
points
6
comments
6
min read
LW
link
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices
SimonM
Apr 27, 2021, 2:03 PM
51
points
5
comments
2
min read
LW
link
Never Go Full Kelly
SimonM
Feb 25, 2021, 12:53 PM
51
points
7
comments
8
min read
LW
link
Kelly isn’t (just) about logarithmic utility
SimonM
Feb 23, 2021, 12:12 PM
35
points
41
comments
4
min read
LW
link
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