Oh wow, thanks. I think at the time I was overconfident that some more educated Bayesian had worked through the details of what I was describing. But the causality-related stuff is definitely covered by Judea Pearl (the Pearl I was referring to) in his book *Causality* (2000).
SilasBarta
Austin, TX
LW event link: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/YQrPgwGaqqvpDPmZx/austin-lw-ssc-winter-solstice-2023
Thanks to everyone for attending! Please complete this survey about your experience so we know what went right or wrong:
Looking forward to seeing all of you today! For parking, you can use the street or the neighboring Mother’s Milk Bank. If it’s crowded, try the neighborhood to the west off Justin Ln, but in all cases, watch for signs about where it is legal to park!
Austin, Texas Winter Solstice.
December 20th (Tuesday), 6 pm doors open.
Location: TBD
LW event link (details to be added).
Just added a spreadsheet to help coordinate carpooling.
Yes it is! (But don’t give them alcohol.)
Final update for anyone who RSVP’d: You can park on the street in the area around Moontower. We will be providing lunch as well: breakfast tacos, including vegetarian and vegan options.
We have the whole venue reserved for us.
It’s overridden, we’ve rented out the place.
Yes, we’ve rented out the venue for 12-8, so the normal hours don’t apply.
Note, venue was changed to:
Moontower Cider Company 1916 Tillery St Austin, TX 78702 United States
PM me for directions if you didn’t get them.
Late to post this, but another resource:
Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?
And the HN discussion about it, with me mentioning high-karma poster John Salvatier.
FYI, we’re aware of the predictions of rain for Saturday and will be bring tent coverings to provide some protection. It’s still on!
For anyone who still follows this, no one pressed the button.
For anyone who found the event here, this is the mobile-friendly version of the program.
Good news! We’ll be coordinating with the Ottawa Petrov Day to do Hardcore Mode A-minus—we’ll get a button that destroys the other party’s Petrov cake.
And 22! Great turnout!
And also 23 but no second sign :-(
Alright, we’re set up at table 15. Excited to see all of you!