I think this sounds fun! The versions of this i’d be most likely to use would be:
Puzzling over scenarios of satisfying complexity. There could be numerical details, selection bias, unreliable narrator obstacles, cases where users with different values might disagree, etc. Even if the scenario-poster is arguably wrong about the right answer, that could still be interesting.
Scenarios that you puzzle over & then read a comment section about. Scenarios that you remember & talk about with friends later.
User-submitted anecdotes from their real lives. This is oddly similar to Reddit’s ‘Am I the Asshole’ threads, but with a focus on becoming more clearheaded & unbiased. Users could sometimes ask for testable predictions about what will happen next, then report back later. So if the pictured scenario came from real life, Maria might ask users how many times Jake will be late in the next 6 months.
Philosophy-esque thought experiments.
Scenarios that do indeed benefit my thinking or expand my perspective. Perhaps by improving my mental statistics skills, or exposing me to perspectives of people with very different lives, or demonstrating little-known math subtleties like Simpson’s paradox. One failure mode for this would be scenarios like the more boring HR-training courses, where the story doesn’t contain any knowledge you don’t already know.
It sounds like the core idea is a variant of the Intelligence Manhattan Project idea, but with a focus on long term international stability & a ban on competitors.
Perhaps the industry would be more likely to adopt this plan if GUARD could seek revenue the way corporations currently do: by selling stock & API subscriptions. This would also increase productivity for GUARD & shorten the dangerous arms race interval.