I opine that you are equivocating between “tends to zero as N tends to infinity” and “is zero”. This is usually a very bad idea.
RolfAndreassen
Karma: 4,805
You take the probability of A not happening and multiply by the probability of B not happening. That gives you P(not A and not B). Then subtract that from 1. The probability of at least one of two events happening is just one minus the probability of neither happening.
In your example of 23% and 48%, the probability of getting at least one is
1 - (1-0.23)*(1-0.48) = 0.60.
Repeating MattG’s question: What do you expect to do that MTurk and the others don’t already do? Why is your project an improvement on what already exists?
Magical powers is not the same as powers divinely granted by a being that has your best interests at heart and whose servants have no agenda of their own. And, going genre savvy for a moment, the incident you refer to is pretty strong evidence that Mellie’s powers tend to the less-luminous side.
(sings)
The lymph node is connected to the… central nervous system! The central nervous system is connected to the… brain lobes! The brain lobes are connected to the… Descartian ghost! Doing the consciousness dance!
If mathematicians measure randomness with probability, then there must be some things that have a 100% occurrence probability
Er… what? I think you need to state your train of thought in more detail; at the moment it doesn’t seem precise enough to engage with.
Therefore it is reduced impact to output the correct x-coordinates, so I shall.
This seems to me to be a weak point in the reasoning. The AI must surely assign some nonzero probability to our getting the right y-coordinate through some other channel? In fact, why are you telling the X AI about Y at all? It seems strictly simpler just to ask it for the X coordinate.
I’ll observe that cold vessels fail gradually; pressure vessels may fail catastrophically.
There may be a better one; Moldbug’s financial ideas are spread over so many words that I gave up on finding the perfect link and just posted one that at least gestures in the right direction.
On the assumption that there’s some overlap between LW and readers of Mencius Moldbug, this report on how to improve the monetary system, commissioned by the government of Iceland, might be interesting. It seems the author has been reading some Moldbug; his favoured suggestion, the “Sovereign Money Proposal”, is closely related to Moldbug’s suggestion that fractional-reserve banking with a lender of last resort might just as well be replaced with a sovereign lender of first resort, and banks that do not issue demand deposits.
None currently known. But I suggest that this is not a very high-priority problem at the moment; if you solve the more pressing ones, you’ll have literally billions of years to figure out an escape path from the universe.
instead people quietly assume that fair is each paying ~1/n, which of course completely fails utilitarian standards.
Indeed, every utilitarian must necessarily love the thought of giving people an incentive to lie about their wealth—alternatively, to produce their tax returns—every time a restaurant bill is to be split.
The supply of IQ-145 partners is limited. That aside, I don’t think I understand your point.
Yep, I also got this.
It follows from special relativity.
While this is no doubt true, NancyLebovitz’s advice is still good. “I thought” is clearer, shorter, and more forceful, than “People may think”; it is also more honest.
Yes, but does the pep-rally style in fact motivate?
Invest at least 10% of your after-tax income, each month, in a Vanguard index fund. Do not buy individual stocks, nor any actively managed index fund, nor any fund with an expense ratio over 0.5%. If you absolutely must pick stocks, and I admit that I am not blind to the attraction, use a fee-free broker such as Loyal3, and don’t count this towards your 10% - use play money for active investing.
If you are looking at your latest paycheck and finding it hard to see where you’re going to cut to be able to put 10% into investments, precommit now to starting this program after your next income increase; also, start with 1% instead. If you cannot free up even 1% of your income, you have a major problem, which you need to fix. (Incidentally, if you can do 20%, do that.)
If your employer has a 401K match, for the love of all that’s holy, contribute enough to max out the match! That’s free money, that is!
If you have several old 401Ks, roll them over into an IRA with Vanguard. It’ll be easier to keep track of your money, you’ll likely pay lower fees, and IRA money is more accessible than 401K money.
Maintain a savings account with at least three months’ expenses in it; six is better; twelve is probably too much—at that point you’re losing more in growth than you’re gaining from being able to ride out a job loss. But people do differ in how they feel about risk; by all means make it twelve if you’d be happier that way.
If you have recurring credit-card debt (not paid off at the end of each period), pay that down before starting on investing. And for dog’s sake do so right now, that stuff is poison. Consider Lending Club or other peer-to-peer lending services, it is fairly likely that you can get a better rate than your credit card gives you.
I wish I had your problem; mine is to find books I want to read. I very often re-read ones that are already on my shelves, for lack of anything new. However, this suggests a possible approach to your issue: When buying a book, check whether you are actually and genuinely excited to read it, so that you will open it the minute it arrives from Amazon. If not—put it in a “maybe later” pile. If it’s more a case of “sure, sounds good” or, even worse, “I want to signal having read that”, then give it a miss.
If you need to read stuff for work or for Serious Social Purposes like a book club, then treat it like work—set aside a certain time of day or week, and during that time, read.
I got a new job! Which pays better than the old one.