raydora

Karma: 80

raydora Sep 29, 2015, 2:30 PM
4 points
in reply to: skeptical_lurker’s comment on: Open thread, Sep. 28 - Oct. 4, 2015
A large portion of my coworkers (due to the nature of the job, they’re probably in that weird space between family, friend, and acquaintance) fiercely endorse beliefs that I am at odds with (against gay marriage, strong religiosity, complete climate change denial, etc) but we can discuss our beliefs (for the most part; one of them insisted he would have his daughter flogged if she ‘turned gay’, and then kidnapped and sent to some less accepting society to ‘chase it out of her’) without any heated arguments. Even if we do, we still have no problems buying each other lunch the next day.

This is a wholly personal experience, since I’m used to holding contrarian views. I think it still bothers my System 1, but not enough for me to devote System 2 time to it.

What about the world at large, though?

Would an online interaction promote calm discussion, or in-person interaction?

While that dichotomy might differ in the LessWrong community due to cultural factors, I think it’s safe to say that people think the opposite is usually true for most internet interactions.

A few possibilities come to mind, in regards to possible trends. I realize that it’s a mixture. Help me out if I’ve missed something.
- A) People are more belligerent online, less belligerent in person.
- B) People are less belligerent online, more belligerent in person.
- C) People are the same online and in the real world.
- D) Online vs. real world belligerence determined strongly by culture.
Public opinion seems to favor A.

I’m having trouble finding relevant studies, because I’m not sure if data collected from the context of online sexual/nonsexual harassment is useful, here.

raydora Sep 29, 2015, 2:05 PM
0 points
on: Examples of growth mindset or practice in fiction
The scifi action flick Edge of Tomorrow might be a close-but-not-perfect example. Most of the movie is an extended training montage, with one (more or less the same as Groundhog Day) unique conceit.

The coming of age movie I Not Stupid is essentially about the distinction between a growth and fixed mindset, as played out against a backdrop of the highly competitive Singaporean education system.

Arguably Batman, when taken at face value. Due in part to sheer volume, there are probably a few story arcs from both Batman and Spider-Man comics that have elements of this. Not even mentioning the countless lesser known entities of super-hero comics that embody it, especially those with Charles Atlas superpowers.

A lot of fight sport fiction might get close, too.

I have an inkling that fiction in the near future featuring The Unchosen One will at least attempt more of this, or at least a Hollywood/Anime version of it.

raydora Sep 29, 2015, 1:48 PM
1 point
in reply to: zedzed’s comment on: Ultimatums in the Territory
I agree, though that particular technique (in and of itself, without context) is also used as a Dark Art.

raydora Aug 9, 2015, 3:01 AM
1 point
in reply to: [deleted]’s comment on: Stupid Questions August 2015
Speaking only from personal experience, it reduces akrasia rather than eliminates it.

An odd factor is an inability to engage in pure entertainment, but I wonder if this is merely a latent psychological issue specific to me that only surfaces when taking modafinil. This seems like it’s a benefit, but it can be an annoyance in regards to social interaction, almost like a classic djinn wish. Since it only lasts half a day (for me) after the first week, this isn’t really a problem, though.

I recommend never taking anything with caffeine in it while on modafinil, but you might not respond as strongly to it as I do.

The most easily observed benefit for me has been not falling asleep while driving, watching movies, sitting, standing idly, etc.

raydora Aug 8, 2015, 8:21 PM
0 points
in reply to: Raziel123’s comment on: Peer-to-peer “knowledge exchanges”
Are you thinking of Cognito?

Could it be a more targeted additional function of the lw study hall?

I do think that it’s an idea that warrants further exploration.

raydora Aug 7, 2015, 8:26 PM
8 points
on: Forecasting health gaps
Yesterday, I was surprised when I treated a patient (for a heart attack) to find that he later ended up in the ER. I’ve only treated a handful (exactly five!) with MI-like symptoms, and none of them had his low heart rate or controlled breathing. Surprise meant my model needed to be updated, and a quick look at this showed me that I really only needed two symptoms to be wary.

Physicians and other healthcare providers in the ‘algorithmic’ camp (vs ‘clinical’) essentially forecast diagnosis through probability-based predictions. Algorithms are also referred to simply as ‘flowcharts’ and as part of standard operating procedure. Medical algorithms incorporate a large number of established heuristics in a standardized manner, and have been shown to dramatically increase diagnostic accuracy. The medical branch of the military has access to a wealth of patient data, and they create algorithms based on that data.

In the private sector, there’s Medal, Apervita, Syapse and others. There’s a few private companies ‘democratizing healthcare data’ for a price. There’s even more information from health insurance providers, which tend to have their own healthcare data companies, which organizations can also access for a price.

DXplain uses Bayesian logic for diagnostics, and is open to physicians. TXdent does the same for dental care. Adjuvant! is publicly available to healthcare providers and exists for cancer patients. eMedicine is pretty great, but nigh useless to the layperson, other than a better version of WebMD, even though it’s a service offered by the same company. If you wanted to improve self-care, you might be able to get some mileage out of CATmaker, but it assumes you’re a provider, and I doubt a layperson would get use out of it. Tripdatabase is a curated database, mostly with links to studies from NIH, so you’ll encounter the paywall either way.

There’s also CDSS, which, while acknowledged as effective, is having problems with implementation due to the state of IT in healthcare.

Disease models exist primarily to forecast infection rates and risks. In addition to census data, there are publicly available datasets for infectious diseases.

All this to say that I suspect the specialists in your post are obfuscating the problem.
- Medical datasets are not freely available to every medical institution.
- Not every provider employs information gleaned from this data.
- Algorithmic, probability based care is essentially controlled by a few companies.
Solve the problem, and you close part of the gap in English speaking countries. If you can read Dutch or Russian, you might be able to get access to all of the above (albeit with more geographically limited datasets) for free, but I don’t really know.

If you want to identify health risks for yourself, cross reference the probability of infection in your meatspace community with your own demographic (parents, habits, location, age, general health, medical history) information and take appropriate preventive measures.

raydora Jul 31, 2015, 6:12 PM
3 points
on: Open Thread, Jul. 27 - Aug 02, 2015
Has anyone read anything about Applied Information Economics?

raydora Jul 2, 2015, 1:15 AM
5 points
in reply to: Shmi’s comment on: July 2015 Media Thread
Within the fantasy genre, he seems well known as the current authority on the (seriously labeled, humorously adopted by him) ‘grimdark’ genre.

If you like that, you’ll probably loveBest Served Cold and The Heroes. He’s got the trappings of a debutante in The First Law, but those two books show an experienced designer at work.

There’s something Tarantino-like about him, as applied to fantasy fiction. An ability to confer personality through changes in writing style is probably what truly sets him apart from other fantasy authors, though. Above all, he is able to tell when a character has no stories left to tell, and usually sets them aside in favor of a minor character from a previous fiction.

When Steven Erikson and George Martin do it, it sometimes seems arbitrary, a reminder to the reader that it’s a shitty world where shitty things happen, and they are often taken out of the plot by death or worse.

It feels more (I’m not sure if the denouement of the First Law might allow this to make more sense, or reveal it to be an old impression that does not match reality- it’s definitely the case in his more recent adult books) natural in Abercrombie’s books, and I don’t doubt that feeling is entirely deliberate. I have an impression that he’s a writer that doesn’t leave much to chance, artistic whim, or fits of inspiration.

raydora Jun 16, 2015, 11:45 PM
5 points
in reply to: Elo’s comment on: Open Thread, Jun. 15 - Jun. 21, 2015
My math skills are probably extremely poor, so it’s been easier for me to to make large gains. Most often, this is manifest in three digit multiplication or division, in situations that don’t allow for calculators. Small scale logistics (how much fuel do we need for x days in x area? How much food?) and other stuff a middle schooler wouldn’t have trouble with. The difference between three minutes and thirty seconds usually doesn’t matter, but I’m preparing for worst case scenarios anyway.

Currently, I have memorized nonsense paragraphs for work and basic medical diagnostic algorithms, as well as the pharmacology of drugs I administer most often. Memorizing faces, names, and minor facts concerning people at work is uncommonly useful in getting the job done. Following proper channels is usually nigh impossible, so we rely on a system of favors.

Basic python functions. Any factoid that may inspire fiction.

I am sometimes (about once a month) in situations where I am given a short amount of time to take in specific information, often digits, and there are dozens of checklists. This is where I’ve seen the most dramatic improvement.

Hrm. I think I’ve figured it out, purely from writing this reply. I’ll just focus on biases, python functions, and mathematical formulas I encounter until I’m ready to take on another major subject.

raydora Jun 15, 2015, 1:10 PM
6 points
in reply to: John_Maxwell’s comment on: Open Thread, Jun. 15 - Jun. 21, 2015
I can honestly say that utilizing a memory palace and linking was a significant jump in my life. I started training myself in their use about a year ago, but never had to put them into action in a constrained time frame until recently. It felt wonderful. Currently working on incorporating spaced repetition into my routine. My chief problem is prioritizing lists. Figuring out what needs to be memorized in a subject requires some understanding, and I usually lack that in subjects I’m deeply interested in.

A combination of mnemonic techniques and mental math methods that I’d never encountered in childhood make a huge difference. I wonder why they are not taught in schools.

CARVER encourages tertiary recon to validate whatever data was initially gathered. I’m sure this wouldn’t be a problem for a neo-rationalist civilian or SOCOM, but when it’s applied in regular Army, the element that’s engaged in tertiary recon has incentive to simply agree with the initial report, especially if that’s the sort of thing command encourages.

That’s about all the topics I have serious familiarity with on that thread. Will check out the rest.

raydora Jun 13, 2015, 3:04 AM
0 points
on: Lesswrong, Effective Altruism Forum and Slate Star Codex: Harm Reduction
This is not a well thought out post, in keeping with the nature of the subject matter. Less Wrong does seem to encourage solidified thoughts rather than subconscious reactions. A good thing, I think, but difficult all the same. Ideas follow.
- An IRC-style (not necessarily chat) section which has neither votes nor a delineation between post and comment. An area for LWers to post thoughts as they occur. Restrict formatting of these posts to plain text. Not a design choice, so much as to encourage train-of-thought style conversation.
- Why upvotes at all? Why not a well defined rating scheme, in addition to use of belief tags in standalone Main and Discussion posts?

raydora Jun 6, 2015, 5:19 PM
1 point
in reply to: Lumifer’s comment on: Stupid Questions June 2015
I suppose the problem with that statement was ‘good’ and ‘working’. It is far easier to simply memorize the symptoms and general knowledge, see what it looks like on assorted Youtube videos and browsing Figure 1, which is free and accessible to the public, than it is to acquire experience with it. This is the cheapest route, and getting that initial knowledge uses the same study techniques you would use to learn, say, microeconomics.

You don’t need too much (EMT and CPR) to be certified to become an Emergency Room Technician, solely to volunteer (as opposed to looking for employment) at an emergency room on weekends. The job mostly involves taking vitals, cleaning, and being ready to assist medical staff with menial labor. It’s probably the cheapest way to do it that I can think of. Close observation of what the doctors and nurses are doing would yield enough experience to recognize frequent issues surrounding diabetic and cardiac emergencies. EMT and CPR would incur the most costs, besides time on weekends.

raydora Jun 4, 2015, 12:27 AM
1 point
in reply to: Cariyaga’s comment on: Confession Thread: Mistakes as an aspiring rationalist
Dying in Warframe? What a casual!

Your explanation seems like it might be true. I know usually encounter that problem, on the other side. Incorporating failure as an opportunity to improve is how I’ve dealt with it in the past, but that may be akin to someone telling a depressed person “just be happy.”

A friend who’s willing to explain how you could improve, and be extremely polite about it might help.

raydora Jun 4, 2015, 12:23 AM
0 points
in reply to: [deleted]’s comment on: Confession Thread: Mistakes as an aspiring rationalist
Does frequency of socialization change your feelings about it? I know, personally, that my ideal amount of socialization is about once a week with people I am close to, and once a month with strangers. There are others who need it every day, but still like a weekend away from people every now and then.

In addition, forced socialization (if your work or school requires a lot of communication, poor or otherwise) can be especially draining.

raydora May 31, 2015, 2:34 PM
1 point
in reply to: Gunnar_Zarncke’s comment on: Stupid Questions June 2015
I don’t believe I’ve ever seen them in regular over-the-counter emergency kits, but making sure you have a tourniquet within (and know it’s use) reach can’t hurt. A pocket mask is great, too. An AED would probably be amazing if you have over a thousand US (or it’s equivalent) dollars to spend. Emergency treatments in general change pretty drastically every few years, so it would be an ongoing investment.

Have a good, working knowledge of what diabetes looks like, and various cardiac issues. While it may never happen to you, recognizing it and calling for help might save someone.

The training, naturally, is probably the hardest part to acquire, but I don’t think anyone who maximizes learning efficiency would have any trouble. The main issue is finding the right teachers.

While I could come up with a curriculum (I teach very basic survival/emergency treatment regularly) and put it in a nice app or something, the nature of those treatments are constantly changing, and I wouldn’t in good conscience disseminate that information without knowing that students would be able to stay up to date.

Until then, an EMT course can’t hurt. If you have stable employment and decent hours, you might be able to take advantage of night classes.

raydora May 22, 2015, 12:19 AM
0 points
in reply to: passive_fist’s comment on: Open Thread, May 18 - May 24, 2015
This sounds like a larger implementation of the models pathologists use to try and predict the infection rate of a disease. Considering the amount of computing power needed for that, such a service might be prohibitively expensive- at least in the near future.

I’m wondering if there would be a way for participants to place some skin in the game, besides a connection to prediction markets.

raydora May 18, 2015, 3:38 AM
9 points
in reply to: Halfwitz’s comment on: Open Thread, May 18 - May 24, 2015
I recently joined this site after lurking for awhile. Are blog contributions of that sort are the primary purpose of Less Wrong?

It seems like it fulfills a niche that the avenues you listed do not: specifically, in the capacity of a community rather than an individual, academic, or professional endeavor.

There are applications of rational thought present in these threads that I don’t see gathered anywhere else. I’m sure I’m missing something here, but could viewing Less Wrong as a potential breeding ground for contributors of that kind be useful?

I realize it’s a difficult line to follow without facing the problems inherent to any community, especially one that preaches a Way.

I haven’t encountered the rationalist tumblr scene. Is such a community there?

raydora Apr 18, 2015, 4:09 PM
1 point
on: LessWrong experience on Alcohol
I’ve liked beer since adulthood, chiefly because I love coarse, bitter breads and beer (I tend to stay away from the blander productions mass marketed by the largest brewing companies) has always seemed like a wonderful liquid take on bread.

Food is my primary source of hedons, and my beverage consumption developed as an extension of that. I have a love affair with mead, a recurring fling with whiskey, and an occasional one night stand with liquors at large. I appreciate cocktails, but I’ve found my tastes to require seeking bartenders that are near impossible to find in smaller towns.

I do not wish to spend the money (on liquor alone) required to learn the skills required to rival them, though I will mix a few drinks on very special (Thanksgiving, etc) occasions.

I spend about 5.5% of my income on alcohol.

I never drank exclusively for the purpose of getting drunk until I joined the military, but it’s still a rare occurrence.

The sensation itself is akin to a combination of runner’s high, fatigue, and, well, being a teenager again. It usually puts me in a good mood and makes it easier for me to enjoy social interactions, and essentially dulls any input my System 2 might have on System 1.

I drink every weekend, at an average of about six bottles of beer or a bottle of wine. Once every three months or so, I will drink more. I know that the equivalent of about 11 bottles of beer begins to stress my digestive system to unpleasant levels, so that’s where I usually stop. I have gone over this limit less than a handful of times.

I know that I will not drink if the only thing available to me, was, say, Budweiser or a Cabernet. Even if I have been gifted with something like Mike’s Hard Lemonade or Redd’s cider, well, I won’t really drink anything of that sort, either.

I will not sacrifice expenditures on living expenses, books, or luxury foods for most types of alcohol. While I’m not an alcoholic, I’m probably close to it.

There is ignorance in the bottle, and in that ignorance is a kind of peace.

That, coupled, with a strong appreciation of flavor and texture from anything I ingest is probably why I consume alcohol.

It is one more pit stop in the race against Akrasia.