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NunoSempere

Karma: 2,415

I am an independent research and programmer working at my own consultancy, Shapley Maximizers ÖU. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I’m also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.


I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com /​ nunosempere.com/​blog rather than on this forum, because:

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I’m particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value. And I haven’t left the forum entirely: I remain subscribed to its RSS, and generally tend to at least skim all interesting posts.


I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms, which I still maintain. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship. Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do “independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term.” I used to write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers, but I stopped as the value of my time rose. I also generally enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.

Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.


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Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempereMay 1, 2021, 4:07 PM
9 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempereApr 1, 2021, 5:12 PM
23 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

Mar 7, 2021, 7:03 PM
83 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempereMar 1, 2021, 9:51 PM
13 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

Feb 19, 2021, 7:07 PM
37 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2021

NunoSempereFeb 1, 2021, 11:07 PM
21 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Re­view.

NunoSempereJan 10, 2021, 4:06 PM
28 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2020

NunoSempereJan 1, 2021, 4:07 PM
13 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempereDec 3, 2020, 10:00 PM
126 points
28 comments9 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2020

NunoSempereDec 1, 2020, 5:00 PM
29 points
5 comments12 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

Nov 15, 2020, 9:12 PM
69 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

Nov 9, 2020, 4:20 PM
44 points
21 comments5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempereNov 1, 2020, 1:09 PM
11 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Ad­just­ing prob­a­bil­ities for the pas­sage of time, us­ing Squiggle

NunoSempereOct 23, 2020, 6:55 PM
19 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

A prior for tech­nolog­i­cal discontinuities

NunoSempereOct 13, 2020, 4:51 PM
71 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

NunoSem­pere’s Shortform

NunoSempereOct 13, 2020, 4:40 PM
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

AI race con­sid­er­a­tions in a re­port by the U.S. House Com­mit­tee on Armed Services

NunoSempereOct 4, 2020, 12:11 PM
42 points
4 comments13 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempereOct 1, 2020, 11:00 AM
21 points
3 comments11 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempereSep 1, 2020, 11:38 AM
16 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempereAug 1, 2020, 5:08 PM
21 points
4 comments22 min readLW link