I’m bumping into walls but hey now I know what the maze looks like.
Neil
Karma: 724
I wrote this after watching Oppenheimer and noticing with horror that I wanted to emulate the protagonist in ways entirely unrelated to his merits. Not just unrelated but antithetical: cargo-culting the flaws of competent/great/interesting people is actively harmful to my goals! Why would I do this!? The pattern generalized, so I wrote a rant against myself, then figured it’d be good for LessWrong, and posted it here with minimal edits.
I think the post is crude and messily written, but does the job.Meta comment: I notice I’m surprised that out of all my posts, this is the one that seems most often revisited (e.g. getting 2 reviews for Best of LW, which I did not expect). I’m updating against karma as a reliable indicator of long-term value as a result: 2 posts I wrote got twice the karma, but were never interacted with beyond their first month. I think they must have been somewhat inspired by hype-shaped memes.
This is an endorsement of the Review function! It has successfully weeded out popular-but-superficial posts of mine and taught me to prioritize whatever’s going on in this post. Karma alone has failed to do this.
I think you’re right, but I rarely hear this take. Probably because “good at both coding and LLMs” is a light tail end of the distribution, and most of the relative value of LLMs in code is located at the other, much heavier end of “not good at coding” or even “good at neither coding nor LLMs”.
(Speaking as someone who didn’t even code until LLMs made it trivially easy, I probably got more relative value than even you.)
need any help on post drafts? whatever we can do to reduce those trivial inconveniences
I’m very pro- this kind of post. Whatever this is, I think it’s important for ensuring LW doesn’t get “frozen” in a state where specific objects are given higher respect than systems. Strong upvoted.
I think you could get a lot out of adding a temporary golden dollar sign with amount donated next to our LW names! Upon proof of donation receipt or whatever.
Seems like the lowest hanging fruit for monetizing vanity— benches being usually somewhat of a last resort!
(The benches seem still underpriced to me, given expected amount raised and average donation size in the foreseeable future).
I’ve been at Sciences Po for a few months now. Do you have any general advice? I seem to have trouble taking the subjects seriously enough to any real effort in them, which you seem to point out as a failure mode you skirted. Asking as many people I can for this, as I’m going through a minor existential crisis. Thanks!
Yeah that’d go into some “aesthetic flaws” category which presumably has no risk of messing with your rationality. I agree these exist. And I too am picky.
I agree about the punchline. Chef’s kiss post
Can I piggy-back off your conclusions so far? Any news you find okay?
Well then, I can update a little more in the direction not to trust this stuff.
Ah right, the decades part—I had written about the 1930 revolution, commune, and bourbon destitution, then checked the dates online and stupidly thought “ah, it must be just 1815 then” and only talked about that. Thanks
“second” laughcries in french
Ahem, as one of LW’s few resident Frenchmen, I must interpose to say that yes, this was not the Big Famous Guillotine French revolution everyone talks about, but one of the ~ 2,456^2 other revolutions that went on in our otherwise very calm history.
Specifically, we refer to the Les Mis revolution as “Les barricades” mostly because the people of Paris stuck barricades everywhere and fought against authority because they didn’t like the king the other powers of Europe put into place after Napoleon’s defeat. They failed that time, but succeeded 15 years later with another revolution (to put a different king in place).
Victor Hugo loved Napoleon with a passion, and was definitely on the side of the revolutionaries here (though he was but a wee boy when this happened, about the age of Gavroche).
Later, in the 1850s (I’m skipping over a few revolutions, including the one that got rid of kings again), when Haussmann was busy bringing 90% of medieval Paris to rubble to replace it with the homogenous architecture we so admire in Ratatouille today, Napoleon the IIIrd had the great idea to demolish whole blocks and replace them with wide streets (like the Champs Elisées) to make barricade revolutions harder to do.
Final note: THANK YOU LW TEAM for making àccénts like thìs possible with the typeface. They used to look bloated.
Do we know what side we’re on? Because I opted in and don’t know whether I’m East or West, it just feels Wrong. I guess I stand a non-trivial chance of losing 50 karma ahem please think of the daisy girl and also my precious internet points.
Anti-moderative action will be taken in response if you stand in the way of justice, perhaps by contacting those hackers and giving them creative ideas. Be forewarned.
Fun fact: it’s thanks to Lucie that I ended up stumbling onto PauseAI in the first place. Small world + thanks Lucie.
Update everyone: the hard right did not end up gaining a parliamentary majority, which, as Lucie mentioned, could have been the worse outcome wrt AI safety.
Looking ahead, it seems that France will end up being fairly confused and gridlocked as it becomes forced to deal with an evenly-split parliament by playing German-style coalition negociation games. Not sure what that means for AI, except that unilateral action is harder.
For reference, I’m an ex-high school student who just got to vote for the first 3 times in his life because of French political turmoil (✨exciting) and am working these days at PauseAI France, a (soon to be official) governance non-profit aiming to, well—
Anyway, as an org we’re writing a counter to the AI commitee mentioned in this post, so that’s what’s up these days in the French AI safety governance circles.
I’m working on a non-trivial.org project meant to assess the risk of genome sequences by comparing them to a public list of the most dangerous pathogens we know of. This would be used to assess the risk from both experimental results in e.g. BSL-4 labs and the output of e.g. protein folding models. The benchmarking would be carried out by an in-house ML model of ours. Two questions to LessWrong:
1. Is there any other project of this kind out there? Do BSL-4 labs/AlphaFold already have models for this?
2. “Training a model on the most dangerous pathogens in existence” sounds like an idea that could backfire horribly. Can it backfire horribly?
The original post, the actual bet, and the short scuffle in the comments is exactly the kind of epistemic virtue, basic respect, and straight-talking object-level discussion that I like about LessWrong.
I’m surprised and saddened that there aren’t more posts like this one around (prediction markets are one thing; loud, public bets on carefully written LW posts are another).
Having something like this occur every ~month seems important from the standpoint of keeping the garden on its toes and remind everyone that beliefs must pay rent, possibly in the form of PayPal cash transfers.