ModusPonies

Karma: 1,317

ModusPonies Jun 19, 2013, 3:19 PM
17 points
on: How to Write Deep Characters

Propaganda only works when the reader feels like you’ve been absolutely fair to other side

As a technique for making good stories, I think this is solid advice. As a technique for making effective propaganda, it’s blatantly false. Uncle Tom’s Cabin is one-sided. Birth of a Nation is one-sided. Brokeback Mountain is one-sided. MoR is one-sided; no one makes a compelling case against rationality.

This isn’t too surprising, considering the source. I’ve read some of Card’s propaganda novels. They’re good stories, but I wasn’t even a little compelled to become a Mormon.

ModusPonies Jun 17, 2013, 5:30 PM
2 points
in reply to: Eliezer Yudkowsky’s comment on: Do Earths with slower economic growth have a better chance at FAI?

At some point I need to write a post about how I’m worried that there’s an “unpacking fallacy” or “conjunction fallacy fallacy” practiced by people who have heard about the conjunction fallacy...

Please do this. I really, really want to read that post. Also I think writing it would save you time, since you could then link to it instead of re-explaining it in comments. (I think this is the third time I’ve seen you say something about that post, and I don’t read everything you write.)

If there’s anything I can do to help make this happen (such as digging through your old comments for previous explanations of this point, copyediting, or collecting a petition of people who want to see the post to provide motivation), please please please let me know.

ModusPonies Jun 14, 2013, 1:58 PM
0 points
in reply to: sixes_and_sevens’s comment on: Coursera Public Speaking Course—LW Study Group?
It’s currently set up so that only members can see our posts, and I have to approve membership requests manually. If there are any other privacy features you’d like me to turn on, let me know what they are. (I couldn’t find anything else in five minutes.)

ModusPonies Jun 14, 2013, 1:36 PM
2 points
on: Coursera Public Speaking Course—LW Study Group?
I’ve signed up, and created a gmail discussion group for us.

ModusPonies Jun 12, 2013, 5:48 PM
3 points
in reply to: CAE_Jones’s comment on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013

I can’t help but feel like that’s mostly all I have to bet on, though.

There are other things that can provide the same benefits. Off the top of my head: a job where you don’t work from home, other coding boot camps, or CFAR. If App Academy falls through, you can pursue something else.

Something that makes this even more frustrating is that, had I realized enough of this just a year or two sooner, my opportunities to do something about it would have been far more numerous, simply by virtue of being at college

I don’t know anyone who doesn’t feel the same way about college, although the specific regrets vary from person to person. It is incredibly frustrating.

“Gain the ability to do things outside the house” is more or less one of my current goals, not that I know how to achieve it.

What’s the biggest difficulty standing in your way? Is it the physical travel or the social anxiety or something else entirely? If it’s a matter of location and transport, the first step is almost certainly “acquire money.” (Given your situation, I think “acquire money” is a hard but solvable problem. Maybe do something like earning two dollars on Mechanical Turk to break down ugh fields and start a success spiral?) Step two would be either “turn money into transportation” or “use money to move to civilization.”

More importantly, you can start building your skills without leaving the house. For example, if you’re training basic social skills, you could call an acquaintance from college or spend five minutes on chatroulette. Or work on getting to the point where you can move through your own house without fear—it sounds like that would improve your mood and productivity dramatically, and the resilience you’d acquire will help you everywhere you go.

ModusPonies Jun 12, 2013, 2:47 PM
3 points
in reply to: CAE_Jones’s comment on: Open thread, May 17-31 2013
Oh, hey, we’re almost exactly the same age.

You’ve got a lot going for you. You can program, you can write, you can enjoy working, you have at least some college education. This is enough to build on.

Based only on this post, it looks like your biggest problem is your social paralysis. Solving this problem isn’t easy, but it’s possible. Comfort zone expansion (CoZE) seems like the recommended model for training these skills. Try doing things that are possible but make you feel awkward—say, spend five minutes at a social event and then leave, or eat a quick meal in the kitchen, or something. Don’t worry about doing these things confidently or well. It’s supposed to be difficult and terrifying; when you do something terrifying and the world doesn’t end, your brain will be less terrified to do it in the future. This should hopefully expand your comfort zone until you can eventually ignore strangers rather than flee from them, or ask your parents what they’ll use your money for instead of living in uncertainty.

Your relationship with your parents sounds really destructive. Changing that should be high priority, whether it’s by moving across the country or group therapy and reconciliation or whatever. I don’t think income is the biggest barrier to your independence. Mediocre programmers can do pretty well (and can often work from home), and you say you own property, which can presumably be rented or sold. I’m more worried about your independent-living skills; being able to manage the dozens of mundane tasks that parents take care of (e.g. buy groceries, get an air filter changed, pay bills on time) can be a struggle for a lot of people when they first move out. Reddit threads about “life pro tips,” or whatever the kids are calling it these days, will be your friend.

I have no idea how much blindness might exacerbate the problem. In any given city, there might or might not exist disability services that can help. My mom would probably be able to find out; let me know if I should ask her about any place in particular.

Applying to App Academy is exactly the kind of proactive, courageous thing you should be doing. Please take a moment to bask in my approval. The program sounds like it could provide everything you need, but it’s definitely high risk. You’ll be in a crucible where you have to live on your own, take care of yourself, and interact with humans. Either you’ll be forced to grow into a significantly more competent human being, or else you’ll get overwhelmed and burn out. If you get accepted (although my understanding is that such places are competitive) and decide to go, you’ll want to take what precautions you can. Work with the program to set up the supports to make sure you succeed. Leaning on the local rationalist community to do this in parallel, as you mentioned, is also a really great idea.

If you don’t go, do what you can to build your independence as soon as possible. You need those skills. Maybe you could do freelance coding online? Maybe you could move into that property you own? I don’t know. Change something.

You’re in a shitty place for now, but it looks like you’re on track to change it. You can gain the social skills, independence, and self-confidence you need to accomplish your goals. People in your situation have done it before. Mostly it seems to require the courage to actually try, and you already have that.

ModusPonies Jun 4, 2013, 7:03 PM
9 points
in reply to: diegocaleiro’s comment on: 2013 June-August Life Hacks Thread
Seems dangerous. If you inflict pain on yourself when thinking about the future, you might train yourself to not think about the future.

ModusPonies Jun 3, 2013, 12:09 PM
10 points
on: Open Thread, June 2-15, 2013
Reminder: Boston is hosting a megameetup on July 13-14.

ModusPonies Jun 1, 2013, 11:45 PM
20 points
in reply to: ArisKatsaris’s comment on: June 2013 Media Thread
Space Oddity performed on board the International Space Station

From a Fun Theory perspective, this is an important proof that one can, in fact, become an astronaut rock star.

ModusPonies May 31, 2013, 5:10 PM
0 points
in reply to: [deleted]’s comment on: The Paucity of Elites Online

What’s the value of them blogging to such a small audience, when most of us see each other two or three times a year at conferences?

Probably about the same benefit as having a mailing list, except that outsiders can access it. (I have no particular opinion on how useful a mailing list would be, but it seems like an appropriate reference class.)

None of them are Gold IMO medalists, so it’s a good thing we’re not working on existential risks!

http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hj5/research_is_polygamous_the_importance_of_what_you/

ModusPonies May 31, 2013, 1:46 AM
1 point
in reply to: Decius’s comment on: The Centre for Applied Rationality: a year later from a (somewhat) outside perspective
Crash space is certainly available for traveling rationalists, but non-weekend meetups are very unlikely.

ModusPonies May 30, 2013, 4:02 PM
6 points
on: Finding interesting communities
What exactly are your goals? To whatever extent tradeoffs exist between “the feeling of being among my own kind” and finding good friends on the one hand, and “social reinforcement for doing cool stuff” and “cultivating greatness” on the other hand, which would you prefer?

Either way, moving closer to downtown would probably help, if it’s an option. It will bring you closer to two specific communities you’ve identified, and in general, more people means more communities worth joining.

ModusPonies May 29, 2013, 2:04 AM
0 points
in reply to: Decius’s comment on: The Centre for Applied Rationality: a year later from a (somewhat) outside perspective
join usssss

ModusPonies May 28, 2013, 8:05 PM
3 points
in reply to: Viliam_Bur’s comment on: The Centre for Applied Rationality: a year later from a (somewhat) outside perspective

perhaps I will volunteer to make one such example lesson. And publish it on LW, and process the feedback

If you do this, I’ll run the lesson with the Boston group and give feedback.

ModusPonies May 24, 2013, 2:03 PM
5 points
in reply to: RomeoStevens’s comment on: Robustness of Cost-Effectiveness Estimates and Philanthropy

Should shift marginal giving towards x-risk

I agree with this statement. I’ve considered redirecting my own donations in light of GiveWell’s recent writings about how most good public health interventions are already funded. (I’m pretty sure I’m sticking with AMF and/or GiveDirectly, but it took me a lot of thought to decide that, and I now require less additional evidence to persuade me to switch.)

That said, putting this under the “good” category seems like a minor case of treating the argument as a soldier. Evidence is evidence; whether it supports your previous conclusion doesn’t make it good or bad.

ModusPonies May 23, 2013, 3:44 PM
0 points
in reply to: NancyLebovitz’s comment on: Meetup : [Cambridge] Sunk Cost Kata
The material we used is below. This passed through at least one person’s hands before it got to me, so I don’t know where CFAR posted it originally.

Slides Exercises 1 Exercises 2 Exercises 3 Exercises 4 Exercises 5

ModusPonies May 22, 2013, 2:21 PM
1 point
in reply to: Viliam_Bur’s comment on: Why is it rational to invest in retirement? I don’t get it.

But if I had an option 5 -- a safe way to protect my savings from inflation and use them for early retirement, I would certainly prefer that.

Many countries make this possible. Is moving an option?

ModusPonies May 22, 2013, 2:07 PM
1 point
on: Preparing for a Rational Financial Planning Sequence
I’m interested in part 4, and would likely pay $5-10 for a digital book that contains it, so long as it were favorably reviewed by other members of this community. (Other guides to this exist, I’m sure, but I’d rather pay $5 than spend the time to track down a good one.) I would probably skip part 1 entirely and skim parts 2 and 3 to confirm my impression that it contains nothing new for me.

ModusPonies May 21, 2013, 1:49 PM
3 points
on: [TED Talk] Peter Singer on Effective Altruism
Thanks for the link. I’ve just sent it to a coworker who I was telling about effective altruism the other day.

According to one estimate, the Gates Foundation has already saved 5.8 million lives

Does anyone know where this number comes from? I can find a whole bunch of bloggers repeating the claim, but I can’t find an original source.

ModusPonies May 17, 2013, 8:50 PM
0 points
in reply to: marchdown’s comment on: Post ridiculous munchkin ideas!
I’ve seen exactly one, and it’s a private channel for the editorial staff of a blog that curates My Little Pony fanfiction. (Yes, this is actually a thing.)