Freelance Software Engineer at day, Rationalist and Effective Altruist at night
Currently, under contract @ METR.
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Milli | Martin
Karma: 117
Their research is done on the population level, and they consider adverse selection effects somewhat (people with increased risk are more likely to insure against that risk), but it’s far from perfect. I’ve worked in insurance and profited from insurance financially in cases where I expected the insurance to be positive EV beforehand.
Professional experience (Germany):
Some insurance products run at an (accepted) deficit, as they acquire customers who then buy more (money making) insurance products. Examples: Personal Liability Insurance, Motor vehicle liability
There is significant friction between the different departments within an insurance and with the insurance agents, causing mispricing from a risk-perspective (some parties care more about raw sales volume).
Nobody really knows what they are doing.
Personal experience:
Personal Liability insurance is dirt cheap in Germany and makes money off people who don’t report their damages (e.g. will pay for a friend’s phone or camera they dropped themselves).
Insurance for bikes in Berlin. 3 of my bikes were stolen within 3 years and the insurance costing <€100/yr covered all of them.
Nice article! I’m practice you can get positive expected value insurance though, since you know more about your risk (in some cases) than the insurance does. The other way around in some cases the insurance is better at estimating your risk and might “rip you off” if they (correctly) assume you overestimate your risk.
Berlin – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2024
Thanks for the lovely meetup, everyone!
You can contact me about anything here or at https://t.me/truemilli. Please don’t hesitate to get in touch if you have criticism or had a bad experience.
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Update: We’ll be joining forces with the Qualia Research Institute, who are in Berlin this week: https://qualiacomputing.com/2024/05/17/qri-in-germany/
I think we’ll get along great and there’s a big overlap. Scott:
The Qualia Research Institute is doing absolutely picture-perfect mad science.
Just an info, nothing actually changes!
Note: Most RSVPs (29 as of now) are on Meetup.
Berlin – ACX Meetups Everywhere Spring 2024 (feat. QRI)
Long survey is long.
A New Paradigm For Emotional Work And Mental Health
ChatGPT is using Whisper for speech to text, which is open source and available through OpenAIs APIs.
I personally tried to use more text to speech on my phone, but was annoyed by it and went back to typing.
I’ve heard Whisper is a definite step-up, especially when mixing English and German.
https://openai.com/research/whisper
https://github.com/openai/whisper
https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/whisper€: This used to say text to speech.
AI Risk Scenario Roleplay
Berlin AI Alignment Open Meetup October 2023
Hey everyone, I’m amazed with how many people showed up and the atmosphere. I hope you had fun and interesting conversations as well. If you want to be connected to the Berlin Rationality or EA communities, just contact me! Contact: acx-meetups@martinmilbradt.de, t.me/truemilli or @Milli | Martin.
PS.: “My” monthly workshop is happening tomorrow evening, happy to have you: The Art of Difficult Conversations—Workshop.
Quick heads up: Most of the RSVPs are on Meetup.com (26 atm).
Berlin, Germany – ACX Meetups Everywhere Fall 2023
EA Germany has an “Employer of Record” program. Your funding gets put into their account, and they pay your salary from it, formally becoming your employer.
This is probably what you want to google or mention to an organization in the UK. :)
Details (EAD): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EePELRNTrZGHgeJa3oeRdF_rDsN7LesYppQah_zE7g4
Be wary of survivorship bias! Of course, everything that is licensed and proven to work was not at some point. But so is everything that was tried out and ineffective / harmful, and (hopefully) still not licensed.
But things that work, accumulate evidence that they do, and good chances get licensed. That’s the way science works.
I don’t blame anyone for trying things out, in fact we need people who do to figure out what actually works. But it’s also perfectly reasonable not to want to do that.
PSA: If you’re like me, you want to subscribe to the Open Threads Tag, to not miss these: https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/open-threads
Useful to keep in mind, especially the point of getting an introduction to the next person.
But I want to point out that it’s also easy to undershoot. Many people hesitate to ask questions or contact new people. It makes me sad when people waste hours on something that I can answer / fix in minutes.
Another thing is to keep time spent / saved in mind. A well crafted message, that’s easy to understand and only requires a short answer, is much harder to write than going back and forth a few times.
If you spend 100x the time you save the other person, it’s probably not worth it in most non-Paul-Christiano-cases.
Great initiative. I’m also surprised at times how many people program without utilizing the full potential of debuggers.
Depending on the line of work, parallelization / performance through matrix multiplication might not matter, though.
The last line says it’s free, but you mention it’s an ad repeatedly. Maybe clarify if you demand / expect / appreciate payment in the beginning.