Is there a name for the following pattern?
Argument or just noticing confusion
“He looks way too confident, he’s probably better at the field or has significant information”
Catastrophic failure more or less matching my predictions
I seem to run into this a lot lately, but the alternative of assuming I’m correct seems even worse. I’m also often not in a position to ask about the source of their confidence.
I’m not sure HR would approve racial stereotype studies as part of the hiring process.
Adjusted for confidence in the factual accuracy of resumes, it’s a tough call.
Chapter 20:
“Yes, nuclear weapons!” Professor Quirrell was almost shouting now. “Even He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named never used those, perhaps because he didn’t want to rule over a heap of ash! They never should have been made! And it will only get worse with time!” Professor Quirrell was standing up straight instead of leaning on his desk. “There are gates you do not open, there are seals you do not breach! The fools who can’t resist meddling are killed by the lesser perils early on, and the survivors all know that there are secrets you do not share with anyone who lacks the intelligence and the discipline to discover them for themselves! Every powerful wizard knows that! Even the most terrible Dark Wizards know that! And those idiot Muggles can’t seem to figure it out! The eager little fools who discovered the secret of nuclear weapons didn’t keep it to themselves, they told their fool politicians and now we must live under the constant threat of annihilation!”
A wizard university seems out of the question.
I’m not sure he’d needed to do that. Until we hear otherwise, he has access to all the knowledge of Salazar, who knew enough to build Hogwarts. Which also means the source code to the wards and the means to change them.
Can you even transfigure something that transfigures itself back? Of course Quirrell can do it if it’s possible, but is it possible?
What’s the deal with spells and age? If Harry is really so far ahead of his class and can already cast spells nobody else can, why is it just now that he can cast “second-year” spells effortlessly?
Canon or not, this reminds me too much of the public school system of a certain country where kids are verboten to use words “they shouldn’t know yet”.
Which one of these do you claim?
the editors failed when identifying this book as “people want”, since it only sold tens of millions
the editors weren’t rewarded for their good judgement
since not every single person on Earth likes it, it should not be allowed to reach those who do
there is no market for romance novels
The hypnotic induction is just a Ritual designed to convince the client that they can be “hypnotized” in a way that matches their preconceptions. After the first session, it’s much more efficient to use an instant reinduction trigger or suggestions like “I can hypnotize you in hundreds of ways impossible to resist” or “all my suggestion will work easily, automatically, whether or not you think you’re hypnotized, in exactly the way that benefits you most”.
As for amnesia, stage techniques are awesome. It’s really hard to doubt you’ve been hypnotized when you count your 11 fingers, can’t get up from the chair or watch your arm grow to twice the size.
So I should (a) not care about personal identity over time, even if it exists, and (b) stop believing that it exists.
That sounds like a thought-stopper. What is the utility of the belief itself? What predictions can we make if personal identity exists? What is the maximum set of incremental changes you can make to yourself until you stop being “you”? What is the utility of being “current you” as opposed to “optimized you”, and which “you” gets to decide? What is the utility of being “you five years ago” as opposed to “current you”, and which “you” gets to decide?
I seem to remember a story about Warren Buffett: whenever he tried to teach people to trade, they failed miserably. When people asked him on why he didn’t follow his own teachings on specific successful trades he did, he simply said “Oh, I changed my mind at the last second.”
I’ve never seen sources for it though, so take it with a grain of salt.
I actually expected Harry to cast the Killing Curse as a last ditch desperation/rage effort. He knew what it does, has seen the wand movements and pronounciation (in the Dementor dream), knew and had the required state of mind. That should be enough to cast it, as per Ch26 (“He is in his sixth year at Hogwarts and he cast a high-level Dark curse without knowing what it did.”).
Or that since she ran for sunlight, she wasn’t inside Hogwarts technically, therefore the wards didn’t pick up her injury. We already have proof the attacker expected her to do that.
Which would also explain her last words.
If he got his opinion by updating it constantly and is willing to update it in the other direction given further evidence, yes. What he actually ends up doing with it is another matter entirely. I wouldn’t expect a Bayesian redneck to join the KKK, for example.
I’d think she’s either committing the fallacy of trusting statistics to exactly predict the individual case, or simply not doing proper cost analysis. Even if the statistics say there are no unsolved crimes and none of the crimes are committed by Asians, the expected negative utility of running into the first Asian criminal in history should outweigh the inconvenience of avoiding one person on an otherwise empty street.