jmh

Karma: 1,478

jmh May 7, 2025, 12:19 AM
4 points
0
on: Five Hinge‑Questions That Decide Whether AGI Is Five Years Away or Twenty
Current AI, even after ChatGPT, earns roughly ten‑thousand dollars per H100‑GPU‑year.
What does that $10K number actually represent? An average across all AI? The marginal GPU earning across all AI? An estimate of either from one of the big AIs?

jmh Apr 27, 2025, 2:11 AM
3 points
1
in reply to: Alexander Howell’s comment on: Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?
I always find the use of “X% of the vote” in US elections to make some general point about overall acceptability or representation of the general public problematic. I agree it’s a true statement but leaves out the important aspect of turn out for the vote.
I have to wonder if, particularly the USA, would not be quite as divided if all the reporting provided percentage of vote of the eligible voting population rather than the percentage of votes cast. I think there is a big problem with just ignoring the non-vote information the is present (or expecting anyone to look it up and make the adjustments on their own).
But I agree, I’m not too sure just where electoral systems fall into this question of AGI/ASI first emerging under ether the USA or CCP.

jmh Apr 27, 2025, 1:48 AM
2 points
0
on: To Understand History, Keep Former Population Distributions In Mind
Would I be incorrect in reading into the post that, at least looked at through the lens of geopolitical status and power, one might not view the post WWII international order than promoted a lot of investment in the developing countries economic and health was planting the seeds of the West’s vision of the modern world order?
Or do you see the current state of things as occurring independently of relative population changes?

jmh Apr 22, 2025, 1:06 PM
3 points
1
on: Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?
I mostly put this question through the same filter I do the question of Chinese vs. US hegemony/empire. China has a long history of empire and knows how to do it well. The political bureaucracy in China is well developed for preserving both itself and the empire (even within changes at the top/changes of dynasty). Culturally and socially the population seems to be well acclimated to being ruled rather than seeing government as the servant of the people (which I not quite the same as saying they are resigned to abusive totalitarianism, the empire has to be providing something that amounts to public good and peace but seem more tolerant of the means applied than western cultures).
The US on the other hand pretty much sucks at empire and lacks a well functioning and well developed bureaucracy for supporting empire.
So I think perhaps one might need to ask what the specific risk one is most concerned about. China probably produces an AI that serves the Party and Empire and so perhaps is a bit more corrigible and won’t decide to kill everyone. But if you’re concerned about what those in control of an AGI/ASI might do with it China might be a bigger risk than the US. With the US you probably have greater risks from the AI wanting to kill everyone or simply doing that without caring but likely have more controls on what the AI will allow its “owners” to do with it.

jmh Apr 13, 2025, 1:50 AM
2 points
0
in reply to: Sergii’s comment on: Can I learn language faster? Or, perhaps, can I memorize the foreign words and recall them faster?
That is pretty much what I’m trying to accomplish and want to try to increase the rate I am building the working vocabulary.
I do agree with both you and Vaughn. Reading should (very hard for me now) really help improving the recall once I can read and have a sufficient understanding of the statement and larger text. Texting is (I have been able to do some) good for me in that it tends to keep the exchange short and sentence structure more simple and short (which means I typically will have a reasonable grasp of the general meaning so can better infer what the unknown word or unrecalled word likely means.)

Can I learn language faster? Or, perhaps, can I memorize the foreign words and recall them faster?

jmhApr 11, 2025, 12:01 AM

12 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

jmh Apr 4, 2025, 2:01 PM
5 points
2
on: Why Have Sentence Lengths Decreased?
Literacy seems to make sense to me but I might be missing something in the post. Writing is language and language is communication so at least two sides.
As more people learned to read, they also learned to write, and written communications increases. However, even with modest literacy one can read a long sentence. Or can do that when it is written by a good/skilled writer. But being able to read does not really lead to writing skills in most cases I suspect.
As more people started communicating via writing (think things like schools and education expansion) the skill level of the average writer likely declined. That probably lead to training next generation writes to write in a more simple sentence structure.

jmh Feb 28, 2025, 6:25 AM
4 points
4
in reply to: interstice’s comment on: You can just wear a suit
There’s a Korean expression that basicly seems to be “the look is right” or “the look fits” which seems in line with your comment. The same outfit, hat, shoes, glasses, jacket or even car for different people create a different image in other’s heads. There is a different message getting sent.
So if the overall point for the post is about the signaling then I suspect it is very important to consider the device one chooses to send messages like this. In other words, yes breaking some social/cultural standards to make certain points is fine but thought needs to be put into just how appropriately your chosen device/method “fits” you will probably have a fairly large impact on your success.
I suspect that holds just as well if you’re looking at some type of “polarizing” action as a mechanism for breaking the ice and providing some filtering for making new acquaintances and future good friends.

jmh Feb 23, 2025, 8:02 PM
3 points
−4
on: How to Make Superbabies
I’m reminded of the old Star Trek episode with the super humans that were found in cryosleep that then took over the Enterprise.
While I do agree that this could be one potential counter to AI (unless the relative speed things overwhelm) but also see a similar type of risk from the engineered humans. In that view, the program needs to be something that is widely implemented (which would also make it potentially a x-risk case itself) or we could easily find ourselves having created a ruler class that views ordinary humans as subhuman on not deserving of full rights. Not sure how that gets done though—from a purely practical and politically viable approach.
I certainly think if we’re doing things piecemeal we would want somewhat smarter people before we have much longer living people.

jmh Feb 21, 2025, 2:46 PM
6 points
0
on: The case for the death penalty
I’m a bit conflicted on the subject of death penalty. I do agree with the view some solution is needed for incorrigible cases where you just don’t want that person out in general society. But I honestly don’t know if killing them versus imprisoning them for life is more or less humane. In terms of steelmanning the case I think one might explore this avenue. Which is the cruelest punishment?
But I would also say one needs to consider alternatives to either prison or death. Historically it was not unheard of to exile criminals to near impossible to escape locations—Australia possibly being a best example.

jmh Feb 19, 2025, 6:13 PM
2 points
0
in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Open Thread Winter 2024/2025
In some ways I think one can make that claim but in an important ways, to me, numbers don’t really matter. In both you still see the role of government as an actor, doing things, rather than an institutional form that enables people to do things. I think the US Constitution is a good example of that type of thinking. It defines the powers the government is suppose to have, limiting what actions it can and cannot take.
I’m wondering what scope might exist for removing government (and the bureaucracy that performs the work/actions) from our social and political worlds while still allowing the public goods (non-economic term use here) to still be produced and enjoyed by those needing/wanting such outputs. Ideally that would be achieved without as much forced-carrying (the flip of free-riding) from those uninterested or uninterested at the cost of producing them.
Markets seem to do a reasonable job of finding interior solutions that are not easily gamed or controlled by some agenda setter. Active government I think does that more poorly and by design will have an agenda setter in control of any mediating and coordinating processes for dealing with the competing interest/wants/needs. These efforts then invariable become political an politicized—an as being demonstrated widely in today’s world, as source of a lot of internal (be it global, regional/associative or domestic) strife leading to conflict.

jmh Feb 19, 2025, 5:36 PM
2 points
0
on: Open Thread Winter 2024/2025
Did the Ask Question type post go away? I don’t see it any more. So I will ask here since it certainly is not worthy of a post (I have no good input or thoughts or even approaches to make some sense of it). Somewhat prompting the question was the report today about MS just revealing it’s first quantum chip, and the recent news about Google’s advancement in its quantum program (a month or two back).
Two branches of technology have been seen as game, or at least potential game changers: AI/AGI and quantum computing. The former often a topic here and certainly worth calling “mainstream” technology at this point. Quantum computing has been percolating just under the surface for quite a while as well. There have been a couple of recent announcements related to quantum chips/computing suggesting progress is being made.
I’m wondering if anyone has thought about the intersection between these two areas of development. Is a blending of quantum computing and AI a really scary combination for those with relatively high p(doom) views of existing AGI trajectories? Does quantum computing, in the hands of humans perhaps level the playing field for human v. AGI? Does quantum computing offer any potential gains in alignment or corrigibility?
I realize that current state quantum computing is not really in the game now, and I’m not sure if those working in that area have any overlap with those working in the AI fields. But from the outside, like my perspective is, the two would seem to offer large complementarities—for both good and bad I suppose, like most technologies.

jmh Feb 17, 2025, 11:01 PM
4 points
0
in reply to: niplav’s comment on: Open Thread Winter 2024/2025
Thanks. It was an interesting view. Certainly taking advantage of modern technologies and, taken at face value, seem to have resulted in some positive results. Has me thinking of making a visit just to talk with some of the people to see get some first hand accounts and views just how much that is changing the views and “experience” of government (meaning people experience as they live under a government).
I particularly liked the idea of government kind of fading into the background and being generally invisible. I think in many ways people see markets in that way pretty much too—when running to the store to pick up some milk or a loaf of bread or whatnot, who really gives much though to the whole supply chain aspect of whatever they were getting actually being there.

jmh Feb 16, 2025, 10:35 PM
6 points
1
on: Open Thread Winter 2024/2025
Does anyone here ever think to themselves, or out loud, “Here I am in the 21st Century. Sure, all the old scifi stories told me I’d have a shiny flying car but I’m really more interested in where my 21st Century government is?”
For me that is premised on the view that pretty much all existing governments are based on theory and structures that date at least back to the 18th Century in the West. The East might say they “modernized” a bit with the move from dynasties (China, Korea, Japan) to democratic forms but when I look at the way those governments and polities actually work seems more like a wrapper around the prior dynastic structures.
But I also find it challenging to think just what might be the differentiating change that would distinguish a “21st Century” government from existing ones. The best I’ve come up with is that I don’t see it as some type of privatization divestiture of existing government activities (even though I do think some should be) but more of a shift from government being the acting agent it is now and more like a markets in terms of mediating and coordinating individual and group actions via mechanisms other than voting for representation or direct voting on actions.

jmh Feb 16, 2025, 10:20 PM
4 points
1
on: Some articles in “International Security” that I enjoyed
With regards to thinking about what comes next, you might find these two links, if you didn’t already come across them, of some interest.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/three-worlds-in-2035/ hypothesizes 3 global futures for 2035.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2035/ offers results from a survey about various outcomes of states that might obtain in (by???) 2035. I didn’t find much surprising here but some of the questions I had not given thought to before so hardly had a point of view on them.

jmh Jan 24, 2025, 10:26 PM
5 points
0
on: Mechanisms too simple for humans to design
I could be way off on this, but I cannot help but core here is less about complexity than it is about efficiency. The most efficient processes do all appear to be a bit simpler than they probably are. It’s a bit like watching an every talented craftsman working and thinking “The looks easy.” Then when you try you find out it was much more difficult and complicated than it appeared. The craftsman’s efficiency in action (ability to handle/deal with the underlying complexity) masked the truth a bit.

jmh Jan 20, 2025, 5:46 PM
3 points
0
on: Don’t ignore bad vibes you get from people
I’ve had similar experiences where my intuition tells me to be cautious but I could not say why. When I’ve ignored those intuitions I’ve generally paid a price. So now I do give them consideration.
In such situations it is probably good to take some time to sit back and try to identify some of the things that triggered the response. We are very good at pattern matching but also really good at filtering. Could be that intuitions like “getting bad vibes” is all about the interaction of the two.
But that is a pretty difficult task, we’re asking our self to go back and review all the details we ignored and filtered. But I suspect it is a very good thing to try doing.

jmh Jan 17, 2025, 4:54 PM
5 points
1
in reply to: johnswentworth’s comment on: What Is The Alignment Problem?
The desires-values schema reminds me of Hirshmann’s The Passions and the Interests and the problem he (IIRC) sees Machiavelli dealing with. Machiavelli is advising kings who he sees as more driven by their passions but to be successful need to be driven more by their interests.
Anyone in the alignment space take a look at Machiavelli in the light of how to get some thing that is more powerful (king versus the advisor) better aligned? Probably need to stretch things a bit to see that type of alignment as being aligned with the general welfare of the kingdom but seems like he was dealing with a similar problem when looked at from certain angles.

jmh Jan 10, 2025, 3:13 PM
3 points
0
in reply to: gw’s comment on: Subskills of “Listening to Wisdom”
I like the point about the need for some type of external competitive measure but as you say, they might not be a MMA gym where you need one.
Shifting the metaphor, I think your observation of the sucker punch fits well with the insight that for those with only a hammer, all problems look like nails. The gym would be someone with a screwdriver or riveter as well as the hammer. But even lacking the external check, we should always ask ourselves “Is this really a nail?” I might only have a hammer but if this isn’t a nail while the results might be better than nothing (maybe?) I’m not likely to achieve the best that could be done some other way. And,of course, watching just what happens went the other hammer-only people solve the problem and compare results to those when we know the problem is a nail we might learn something from their mistakes.

jmh Jan 2, 2025, 5:47 PM
4 points
2
in reply to: Ben Pace’s comment on: Ben Pace’s Shortform Feed
I agree with the view that punishment is not really a great deterrent as many crimes are not committed from a calculated cost-benefit perspective. I do think we need to apply that type of thinking towards what we might do with that insight/fact of things.
On that point, would like to see more on your claim that we would get better bang for the buck as it were from more investment in preventing crimes. In this regard I’m thinking about the contrast between western legal views and places like China as well as the estimates on the marginal pecuniary costs of prevention to the marginal pecuniary savings from reduced punishment. Clearly two (among many) difference margins along which trade-offs will need to be made.
Another aspect that seems worth exploring (and I’m sure it has been but not sure where the literature stands on the question) is how, at least in my understanding of USA criminal law, victims of crimes are not often compensated (white collar, fraud, financial crimes are something of an exception) but the victims, as a part of society, are then paying costs to punish the criminal. Full prevention is not a reasonable assumption (not sure what level is a reasonable assumption) but we might find a better solution even at the current rate of prevention if more of those harmed by crimes were actually compensated for the harms rather than just imposing the punishment of the criminal actor. A primary reason for preventing the event of a crime is the prevention of the harm. But if the harm can be largely mitigated after the fact there is a degree of equivalent between it never having occurred and it’s compensation (perhaps here we might think of law and punishment as a type of insurance).
I also think there is something to look at in terms of prevention of incidence of crimes due to incarceration—a type of exile. There might be scope for approaches there that maintain that type of prevention for repeat offenders (those demonstrating a propensity for some bad behavior for whatever reason) that may be possible at a lower cost than prison incarceration. And what might the marginal gain in prevention be related to the cost of the solution. This is a somewhat different approach than the ex anti prevention approach applied to the general society but may be nearly as effective but substantially lower cost.

jmh

Can I learn lan­guage faster? Or, per­haps, can I mem­o­rize the for­eign words and re­call them faster?

Can I learn language faster? Or, perhaps, can I memorize the foreign words and recall them faster?