Ian David Moss

To Be De­cided #3

• Ian David MossNov 28, 2019, 12:22 PM

  3 points

  on: Up­dat­ing a Com­plex Men­tal Model—An Ap­plied Elec­tion Odds Example

  This mostly made sense to me, but what is the surprising information that caused you to update in favor of Trump being reelected? Presumably some piece of economic news? Or did I misunderstand your last sentence?

• Ian David MossNov 8, 2019, 1:53 PM

  2 points

  in reply to: Isnasene’s comment on: An In­tro­duc­tion to De­ci­sion Modeling

  Yes, I agree that choice of distribution is often very important to modeling outcomes. If you’re not sure which is most appropriate, you can experiment with different ones as you just did to see whether and how they affect the results. By the way, Guesstimate supports more distributions than the three you mentioned, but the others involve a little more work to incorporate into the model. You can even define your own distributions from sample data that you upload.

To Be De­cided #2

A Short In­tro­duc­tion to The­ory of Change

• Ian David MossOct 4, 2019, 1:11 PM

  2 points

  in reply to: Pattern’s comment on: To Be De­cided #1

  Whoops! It is not. Here’s the correct one, and I’ll make the change in the post as well. Thanks for the correction and the kind words!

To Be De­cided #1

De­ci­sion-Mak­ing for Im­pact: A Guide

The Cri­sis of Ev­i­dence Use

An In­tro­duc­tion to De­ci­sion Modeling

This is Why Your Hard Work Sits on the Shelf — and Here’s What to Do About It

We’ve Been Think­ing About Mea­sure­ment All Wrong