The problem is that you cannot be quite absolutely certain that someone will in fact fail. You can express any likelihood of them amounting to anything other than “normal” or “average” is frighteningly small, but that’s not quite the same as an absolute fact that they will not succeed ever, nor does any of this mean that the effort to reach their goal on some level wouldn’t make them happy even if they never succeed. The effort to reach that goal also can be also very socially and economically productive.
I think the better advice is “Dream of victory, but prepare for defeat.” The idea is that if they are truly passionate about something they should push towards it but prepare themselves to fail again and again. That means that they shouldn’t just abandon all family and stable work for said goals, but instead maintain those in preparation for the likely event that they fail in each attempt. This is important because no one goes through life without taking a blow so to speak. Everyone spends some of their time taking their own share of lumps and preparing for this instead of living in a fantasy world in which nothing can go wrong is important.
I suppose its a fundamental disagreement of basic philosophy here. You are arguing the Buddhist and Epicurean thought “Unhappiness is caused by unnecessary desire.” Whereas my observation and platform is based upon the idea that “True depression is stillness born from a lack of worthwhile purpose and objectives in life.” Its the recognition that for some people at least (such as myself) they need fantastic goals and overriding purpose in life to be happy, even if the chance of success is quite low.
I have to admit that I greatly enjoyed this topic because it introduced me to new concepts. When I clicked on this discussion I hadn’t a clue what Neo-Reactionaries were. I knew what a political reactionary is but I hadn’t a clue about this particular movement.
The thing that I have found fascinating is the fundamental concept of the movement (and please correct me if I am wrong) is that they want a way out. That the current system is horribly flawed, eventually doomed and that they want to strike a new deal that would fix things once and for all. The recognition is that even if abolished governments will again form. As such they hope to devise a government that is no longer a sham, and structurally will have finally the best interest of the people at its heart instead of selfishness.
What fascinates me about this is some of the discussions about AGI here. Plenty of people apparently feel that eventually agi will rule over us. They essentially are interested in building “a better tyrant.” I don’t know, give me a thumbs down on this comment if you want but I found the parallel interesting. Of course many ideologies are more alike then people care to admit. For example communism is supposed to be economic and social power sharing and to ensure at the very least everyone’s material needs are met. Capitalism and the corporate structure actually aim for the same thing.