I interpreted the last statement as follows:
IF you assign a probability higher than 10^(-8) to the hypothesis that you are in a holodeck
AND you win the lottery (which had a probabiltiy of 10^(-8) or thereabouts)
THEN you have good reason to believe you’re in a holodeck, because you’ve had such improbable good fortune.
Correct me if I’m wrong on this.
Not really. Think of Nozick’s experience machine. If you were to use the machine to simulate yourself in a situation extremely close to the center of the singularity, would you also give yourself the looks of Brad Pitt and the wealth of Bill Gates?
a) Would this not make the experience feel so ‘unreal’ that your simulated self would have trouble believing it’s not a simulation, and therefore not enjoy the simulation at all? In constructing the simulation, you need to define how many positive attributes you can give your simulated self before it realizes that its situation is so improbable that it must be a simulation. I’d use caution and not make my simulated self too ‘lucky.’
b) More importantly, you may believe that a) doesn’t apply, and that your simulated self would take the blue pill, and willingly choose to continue to live in the simulation. Even then, having great looks and great wealth would probably distract you from creating the singularity. All I’d care about is the singularity, and I’d design the simulation so that I have a comfortable, not too distracting life that would allow me to focus maximally on the singularity, and nothing else.
I read your comment and I immediately wanted to vote up Marshall’s original comment. After all, he’s the underdog being criticized and chased away by the founder and administrator of this blog.
In the end, I didn’t, probably for equally irrational reasons.
Voted up from −1 because I want you to clarify. Do you believe that bisexuality in women is ubiquitous, while not ubiquitous, but present in some men? Or that it is completely absent in men, but present though not ubiquitous in women? Or any other combination of absent, present or ubiquitous in either women or men?
Actually, the trick worked, but the effects had worn off by the time you wrote this message, which is why you deny having your opinion on the AI issue completely reversed in a shocking aha-erlebnis, for a brief ten minutes at least. Remember to videotape yourself the next time.
I really hope (perhaps in vain) that humankind will be able to colonize other planets before such a singularity arrives. Frank Herbert’s later Dune books have as their main point that a Scattering of humanity throughout space is needed, so that no event can cause the extinction of humanity. An AI that screws up (such as this one) would be such an event.
Wow—that’s pretty f-ed up right there.
This story, however, makes me understand your idea of “failed utopias” a lot better than when you just explained them. Empathy.
The person controlling the holodeck (who presumably designed the simulation) needs to know the probability. But the person being simulated, who experiences winning the lottery, does not need to know anything about the inner working of his (simulated) world. For the experience to seem real enough, it’d be best, even, not to know every detail of what’s going on.