Defeating Moloch, one optimisation at a time | MSc student in AI, currently working on generative modelling for bioinformatics | Machine learning, game theory, personalised medicine | Co-host of Bit of a Tangent podcast and Narrator of Replacing Guilt audiobook | gianlucatruda.com
gianlucatruda
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Great summary! For those reading the comments, there is a growing Rationalist-oriented community on Clubhouse. Join here: https://www.joinclubhouse.com/club/rationality-live
Update: I tried searching again now and it pops up when I search “rationality” now. Seems it just took a while to update.
Seems that there isn’t yet a robust way to share these new communities (that I’ve found). But I’m glad you’re finally in. Looking forward to some future conversations!
I don’t think it’s you. These in-app communities are a brand new feature, so I suspect it’s still a bit buggy. Thanks for letting me know.
Try visit this event link from your phone and then tap on the club name. Does that work?I’ll also try invite you directly from the app.
Agreed. They’re working on Android at the moment. I should have made all that clear in the post.
Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community.
I just discovered this now, Zvi. It’s such a great heuristic!
I whipped up an interactive calculator version in Desmos for my own future reference, but others might find it useful too: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/pf74qjhzuk
Apologies for the late reply. Thanks for your kind words and support!
My Replacing Guilt output has been very low lately, but I’ll have some more time flexibility in the near future and will start making progress again.
Thanks for compiling the series like this. I really appreciated being able to read it on my Kindle!
To help make Nate’s ideas even more accessible, I’m currently producing an audio version. It can be found at https://anchor.fm/guilt or by searching “Replacing Guilt Podcast” on all podcast platforms. I intend to make a single audiobook out of it at the end too*.
If you know of people who would benefit from Replacing Guilt, but primarily consume audio instead of reading, please do forward it their way.
*All with Nate’s permission, of course
No, to be clear, what I interpreted of your post was that you are “prescribing” how much time should be spent. “Predicting” how much time you will spend on something is not particularly helpful in achieving any output results, especially if it’s largely just repeating what you did before. Your response does help in that it clarifies what you have done. It’s just not what I thought you had done. In my experience, a “prescription”—a plan for what you must do to achieve some valuable outcome—is of more use in self-experimentation than a prediction. If, on the other hand, you have a lifestyle that is chaotic and in flux, where estimating time required by novel tasks is a challenge, then yes, a prediction is indeed useful. Thanks for getting back and sorry that my response is a fortnight later.
Could you elaborate on how exactly you went from a collection of data to a prescription of how much time you should spend on each task?
Great post and helpful synthesis of the difference in procedural- and declarative- directed approaches. The matrix multiplication example earns a 10⁄10 too. I trust the exams went well!
I’d love to do that sometime (timezones permitting). I’m @gianlucatruda on Clubhouse.