My gut says that the performance in a vehicle collision will probably bring the head to a halt...
Presumably, the impact would cause the pedestrian to fly back in roughly the same direction the car was moving during the impact, rather than come to a complete stop. That said, I don’t really know enough about the tests to know if this would make a difference in efficacy. Could you link the exact data you received?
Perhaps the endowment effect evolved because placing high value on an object you own signals to others that the object is valuable, which signals that you are wealthy, which can increase social status, which can increase mating prospects. I have not seen this idea mentioned previously, but I only skimmed parts of the literature.
Yes, but I’m looking to see if it increases existential risk more than it decreases it, and if the increase is significant.
Where exactly is the logical prior being used in the decision procedure? It doesn’t seem like it would be used for calculating U, as U was implied to be computable. I don’t see why it would be needed for p, as p could be computed from the complexity of the program, perhaps via kolmogorov complexity. Also, what is the purpose of us? Can’t the procedure just set us to be whatever U outputs?
Oh, I think I see. Confidence is a feeling, while credence is a belief.
I find it interesting that you both are underconfident and realize you are underconfident. Have you tried adjusting for underconfidence like you would any other cognitive bias? (At least you need not adjust for overconfidence!)
Alternatively, the site could let the users determine what it good. Users could “like” or “dislike” articles, and these likes and dislikes would affect the reputation of the publisher. The higher the publisher’s reputation, the more likes, and the fewer dislikes and article has, the higher rank the article would get when being searched for, and articles with sufficiently low rankings would be hidden. Think Stack Exchange for science.
It could be expanded in many ways, for example by weighing likes and dislikes by high-status users more heavily than low-status ones, or by using numeric ratings instead.
Good job. Why hasn’t this been published in a journal?
Oppression could cause an existential catastrophe if the oppressive regime is never ended.
I have heard (from the book Global Catastrophic Risks) that life extension could increase existential risk by giving oppressive regimes increased stability by decreasing how frequently they would need to select successors. However, I think it may also decrease existential risk by giving people a greater incentive to care about the far future (because they could be in it). What are your thoughts on the net effect of life extension?
The book Global Catastrophic Risks states that it does not appear plausible that molecular manufacturing will not come into existence before 2040 or 2050. I am not at all an expert on molecular manufacturing, but this seems hard to believe, given how little work seems to be going into it. I couldn’t find any sources discussing when molecular manufacturing will come into existence. Thoughts?
But other than self-importance, why don’t people take it seriously? Is it otherwise just due to the absurdity and availability heuristics?
I think something else is going on. The responses to this question about the feasibility of strong AI mostly stated that it was possible, though selection bias is probably largely at play, as knowledgable people would be more likely to answer than the ignorant would be.
Why don’t people (outside small groups like LW) advocate the creation of superintelligence much? If it is Friendly, it would have tremendous benefits. If superintelligence’s creation isn’t being advocated out of fears of it being unFriendly, then why don’t more people advocate FAI research? Is it just too long-term for people to really care about? Do people not think managing the risks is tractable?
Despite there being multiple posts on recommended reading, there does not seem to be any comprehensive and non-redundant list stating what one ought to read. The previous lists do not seem to cover much non-rationality-related but still useful material that LWers might not have otherwise learned about (e.g. material on productivity, happiness, health, and emotional intelligence). However, there still is good material on these topics, often in the form of LW blog posts.
So, what is the cause of the absence of a single, comprehensive list? Such a list sounds incredibly useful for making efficient use of LWers’ time. Should one be made? If so, I am happy to make a post about it and state my recommendations.
See the post in the sequence “37 Ways That Words Can Be Wrong” called “Sneaking in Connotations. It seems to be roughly what you’re talking about.
Here’s a potential existential risk. Suppose a chemical is used for some task or made as a byproduct of another task, especially one that is spread throughout the atmosphere. Additionally, suppose it causes sterility, but it takes a very long time to cause sterility. Perhaps such a chemical could attain widespread use before its deleterious effects are discovered, and by then, it would have already sterilized everyone, potentially causes an existential catastrophe. I know this scenario for causing an existential catastrophe seems very small compared to other risks, but is it worthy of consideration?
Perhaps it would be beneficial to introduce life to Mars in the hope that it could eventually evolve into intelligent life in the event that Earth becomes sterilized. There are some lifeforms on Earth that could survive on Mars. The outer space treaty would need to be amended to make this legal, though, as it currently prohibits placing life on Mars. That said, I find it doubtful that intelligent life ever would evolve from the microbes, given how extreme Mar’s conditions are.
What are some recommended readings for those who want to decrease existential risk? I know Nick Bostrom’s book Superintelligence, How can I reduce existential risk from AI?, and MIRI’s article Reducing Long-Term Catastrophic Risks from Artificial Intelligence are useful, but what else? What about non-AI-related existential risks?
Where can one find information on the underlying causes of phenomena? I have noticed that most educational resources discuss superficial occurrences and trends but not their underlying causes. For example, this Wikipedia article discusses the happenings in the Somali Civil War but hardly discusses the underlying motivations of each side and why the war turned out how it did. Of course, such discussions are often opinionated and have no clear-cut answers, perhaps making Wikipedia a sub-optimal place for them.
I know LW might not be the best place to ask this, but my intuition suggests that LWers may care more about this deeper-level understanding, so may be able to suggest resources.