nikos

Karma: 268

Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting

nikos, Peter Mühlbacher, Lawrence Phillips and dschwarz

12 Sep 2024 18:10 UTC

182 points

16 comments7 min readLW link

Unit economics of LLM APIs

dschwarz, nikos, Lawrence Phillips and kotrfa

27 Aug 2024 16:51 UTC

42 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: How Do Forecasters Fare by Their Own Call?

nikos7 Nov 2023 17:39 UTC

14 points

5 comments14 min readLW link

Comparing Two Forecasters in an Ideal World

nikos9 Oct 2023 19:52 UTC

5 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

Predictive Performance on Metaculus vs. Manifold Markets

nikos4 Mar 2023 8:10 UTC

18 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Creating a database for base rates

nikos12 Dec 2022 10:09 UTC

2 points

1 comment3 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Announcing the Forecasting Wiki

nikos15 Apr 2022 9:52 UTC

7 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Göttingen, Germany – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2021

nikos23 Aug 2021 8:46 UTC

3 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Announcing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge

nikos17 May 2021 17:29 UTC

7 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Crowd-Forecasting Covid-19

nikos31 Dec 2020 19:30 UTC

17 points

0 comments5 min readLW link