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nikos

Karma: 269

Con­tra pa­pers claiming su­per­hu­man AI forecasting

nikos, Peter Mühlbacher, Lawrence Phillips and dschwarz
Sep 12, 2024, 6:10 PM
182 points
16 comments7 min readLW link

Unit eco­nomics of LLM APIs

dschwarz, nikos, Lawrence Phillips and kotrfa
Aug 27, 2024, 4:51 PM
43 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Mir­ror, Mir­ror on the Wall: How Do Fore­cast­ers Fare by Their Own Call?

nikosNov 7, 2023, 5:39 PM
14 points
5 comments14 min readLW link

Com­par­ing Two Fore­cast­ers in an Ideal World

nikosOct 9, 2023, 7:52 PM
5 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive Perfor­mance on Me­tac­u­lus vs. Man­i­fold Markets

nikosMar 4, 2023, 8:10 AM
18 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Creat­ing a database for base rates

nikosDec 12, 2022, 10:09 AM
2 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing Wiki

nikosApr 15, 2022, 9:52 AM
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Göt­tin­gen, Ger­many – ACX Mee­tups Every­where 2021

nikosAug 23, 2021, 8:46 AM
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Fore­cast­ing Challenge

nikosMay 17, 2021, 5:29 PM
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Crowd-Fore­cast­ing Covid-19

nikosDec 31, 2020, 7:30 PM
17 points
0 comments5 min readLW link