dumky

Karma: 89

dumky Jun 10, 2015, 6:39 AM
0 points
on: Beauty quips, “I’d shut up and multiply!”
There is a difference between P(“Heads came up”) and P(“Heads came up” given that “I was just woken up”). Since you will be woken up (memory-less) multiple times if tails came up, the fact that you are just getting woken up gives you information and increases the probability that tails came up.

Let’s consider P(H | JustWoken) = P(H and Monday | JustWoken) + P(H and Tuesday | JustWoken) Because I have no information about the scientist’s behavior (when he chooses to ask the question), I have to assign equal probabilities (one third) to P(H and Monday | JustWoken), P(T and Monday | JustWoken) and P(T and Tuesday | JustWoken). And it’s impossible to be woken up on Tuesday if Heads came up, so P(H and Tuesday | JustWoken) = 0. In result, P(H | JustWoken) = ¹⁄₃.

If anyone doubts that, we could set up a computer simulation (you write the scientist and coin code and I write code for the beauty answering the question) and we bet. But I would require an experimental condition, stating that the scientist will ask the beauty the question every time she wakes up. Under those conditions, a beauty which always bets that “tails came up” any time she gets woken up will win ²⁄₃ of the time. If we could not agree to those conditions (getting interviewed by the scientist on every occasion), the bet would be broken because you know what answer I will give and you have information that I don’t have (strategy for when to interview).

dumky May 4, 2015, 5:12 AM
0 points
on: Why capitalism?
It would be helpful to define terms first. Capitalism is the system of private ownership of scarce objects. People are scarce, land is scarce, resources are scarce. Even if energy becomes plentiful, the means of production of that energy will remain scarce (solar panels and other capital goods). Even if you can 3D print any object, the resources used as inputs are still scarce.

In short, scarcity will not go away, although it will continue to get significantly better, as more valuable and useful things can be produced with less (less labor, less energy, less resources, etc). Therefore private ownership and voluntary association, aka capitalism, will remain.

dumky Jan 6, 2015, 9:31 AM
2 points
in reply to: cata’s comment on: Rational Healthcare
I agree with you that the post seems like an ad.

That said, the question “why aren’t people doing this more already?” is not very informative to figure if this is a good idea or not.

As economists joke, the twenty dollar bill on the sidewalk is probably too good to be true, otherwise someone would have picked it up already. In reality, new solutions and arrangements are not easy to discover, or to bootstrap, and they take time to become adopted.

What the post describes sounds a lot like fraternal societies, which were a common model for healthcare a century ago (before most government welfare programs). It’s a kind of insurance cooperative.

Regarding your last question, I am curious too (why would this solution be sustainable and cheaper than alternatives). I think there is a difference between the price that hospital advertise for people without insurance and the price they charge for people who pay cash.

People without insurance and don’t pay basically allow the hospital to collect federal money for “uncompensated care”. The incentive is to inflate those prices (so-called charge master) and collect more subsidies. If I remember correctly, the States benefit from the scam as well (again at the expense of the federal government/taxpayers).

On the other hand, my understanding is that people who pay cash can get much better prices, because the hospital isn’t dealing with a third-party (but instead with someone who is sensitive to spending their own money) and also avoiding bureaucratic messes (medicare/medicaid/insurance paperwork and regulations for covered patients). There are doctors who don’t accept Medicaid and also doctors who are now opting-out of insurance (switching to direct payment only). My impression is that those are cheaper.

I’m deriving some of this understanding from how the founder of the Surgery Center of Oklahoma describes the industry. His firm is operating on direct payment model only and appears to be spurring some price competition. His claims deserve a pinch of salt, but they also seem consistent with what I’m reading from various economists (admittedly more of the free-market kind).

dumky Dec 18, 2014, 7:04 PM
6 points
on: Kickstarting the audio version of the upcoming book “The Sequences”
Backed. Thanks for starting this project.

What will be the recommended software to consume this?

I’m an Audible member anymore. I’m using a regular podcast iOS app (called RSSRadio) for HPMOR at the moment, but it’s a bit manual (have to download each episode from archive). It seems like there would be a way to package an audio book (mp3 files + some XML metadata) and have an app that can consume that. Basically, like Audible but with a simple/open format. But I haven’t found any so far.